I've got some questions.
In one way or another, Mike Clayton has said all the things below, but only recently did it crystalize in my mind: what separates great short, driveable par 4s from average short, driveable par 4s.
1. Max-out on options; at a minimum:
a) A safe route;
b) A driving route;
c) A third "contingency" route, which may vary with the location of the hole, conditions, etc.
In fact, there can be many more options. Width may be a condition of the validity of a high number of contingency routes, but a hole of "normal" width should be able to hold at least three routes, yes?
2. No dominant strategy. A dominant strategy is a game theory term and means that one strategy is always superior to the others and should be chosen every time. For example, golfers may never choose driver on a short 4: "lay-up" is a dominant strategy. (There's a hole at a course I play that's driveable, but I have never, never, seen anyone even attempt it. The risk-reward's out of whack. In contrast, there's another short 4 I've played where it seems all golfers do is hit driver, at least two-thirds or more do.)
A great 4 should lead different golfers to make different decisions, and the same golfer to make different decisions from day to day, depending on his game, hole location, and conditions. You could measure "no dominant strategy" a few ways. One test might be each option over time sees roughly the "naive" proportion of total play. So: if three options, then each one gets one-third the play. (I admit that's simplistic, especially when some options come into play only when the flag is in a certain location, or under certain conditions...)
3. Aesthetics (personal preference)
4. Originality (distinguishes very good from truly great)
Here are the questions:
A. I assume every architect knows these things, and apparently golfers love these holes, but why do we see so few great ones? I think it comes down to one of the following reasons:
1. Architects disagree with the criteria above;
2. Architects don't know how to design for multiple options;
3. Designing a hole with no dominant strategy is really, really difficult.
B. What are great examples of short 4s with no dominant strategy, and what options are presented? (BTW, it sounds like Riviera 10 may no longer qualify, at least for the pros, who now apparently pull driver every time, no matter what. For the rest of us, though, presumably the hole still qualifies.)
C. How certain are designers they can design a hole with no dominant strategy, before it actually goes in the ground; i.e., before you get to see how golfers actually play the hole? I have to think this is harder than it looks -- MacKenzie would have put one on every one of his courses if he could have (yes?), but he didn't (did he?). You might be able to put three options on paper and in the ground, but that doesn't mean each option will get one-third the total play.
Thanks,
Mark