Fifty Years From Now ...

[Tom_Doak]

What country will have made the greatest gains in the construction of new golf courses?

Will it be China, strictly on demographics, even though there isn't really any local golf culture there today?  India, which has some golf culture left over from colonial days?  Brazil?  Russia?  Somewhere in eastern Europe?  Mexico, thanks to California money and paspalum?  Canada, thanks to global warming?

Or will the USA still be devoting more of its resources and good land to golf?

Please give a reason for your answer.

[Bryan Izatt]

Well, it certainly won't be Canada, notwithstanding global warming.  We are already pretty well endowed with courses that could be used year round in the right climate and the golfing culture in pretty well ingrained.

Of the rest, I'd go with China.  They have lots of land, a huge population, a culture that is rapidly adopting western ideas, and a rapidly growing economy that will create more people with the financial wherewithall to take up the game.

I don't see anything in Mexico, Brazil, Russia or India that would indicate that the cultural landscape or the economic conditions for large numbers of people are changing as fast in the right direction as they are in China.

You didn't mention Korea or Japan.  Or are they already reasonably developed?

[Billsteele]

At some point in time over the next 50 years, I am sure that the US will normalize relations with Cuba and that Cuba will soften its version of Communism. Given that convergence of circumstances, I would assume that Cuba would be thirsting for tourist dollars and many Americans would be willing to take the short flight to Havana. Given the island setting in a tropical climate, I would imagine that a number of courses will be built...some with some spectacular settings, some with rather large budgets.

[Ian Andrew]

"What country will have made the greatest gains in the construction of new golf courses? "
by volume China - not sure who even plays them though

"India, which has some golf culture left over from colonial days?"
The growth of the middle class and the breakdown of the caste system will change the country right before our eyes. This will eventually create demand for golf - although the massing of land must be an issue. The changes in the Indian banking system have been very important to the recent growth of the economy, that will only make building easier.

Brazil?
As an aside I think Brazil is where the next great exotic course will come from - likely a links too.

That said, I would still expect America to lead the way in quality and quantity. Disposable income and the entrepreneurial spirit would be my reasons.

[Tom Dunne]

I say Argentina, if they can get their act together politically and attract investment. It's a country with a terrific golf heritage and an awful lot of good land.

[Rich Goodale]

India--not a chance in hell (or whatever counts for hell in India--reincarnation as an internet GCA geek, maybe?).  Too few golfers, too little demand for the tri-tip sandwich in the clubhouses....

China--biggest by far in volume, most ostentatious in terms of infrastructue, most underwhelming in terms of quality.  Kinda like a maxi-Florida.

Brazil--fuggedaboutit!  Sitting on Ipanema watching the girls go by vs. 5-6 hours playing a game which you will never master with your fat arsed friends?  No contest!

The winner?  USA.  Got the market, got the land, got the money, got the imagination, got the volume.  Same old, same old....

Surprise runner-up? UK and Ireland.  Still huge amounts of incomparable virgin golfing land.  Just at the tipping point of having the locals finally understand that upmarket golf is good for the economy.  If Trump's Aberdeen project gets final approval, it wil be Katy bar the door.

Dark Horse--Eastern Europe.  Some great land, some great climate, huge amounts of dodgily obtained money looking for places to invest, close to and familiar to significant golfing markets (US, UK).  The Flordia/Spain of the 21st century.

IMHO, of course.

[Willie_Dow]

Tom - Talk to Mel Lucas on this one.  He and Stanley Zonteck have much to say about Western Europe and the Black Sea areas.

[Tommy Williamsen]

I am not certain that one country will dominate but I do think it will be an Asian country.  According to reports I see Asians are talking up the game faster my grass grows in the spring.  They also are the new vacation area.  Golf is always connected to attract Europeans and Americans.

[Ryan Farrow]

It would be great if Canada would start to emerge, since I am seriously contemplating a move out of the states come November 2008, depending on what goes down.

To be realistic with China's lack of environmental regulation and billions of people they will be putting up some serious number if they aren't already doing so. It seems like they are keeping a lot US firms in business right now.

[Gib_Papazian]

Oh, this is obvious: Japan.

You see, once their economy turns around, the golf craze will begin anew. Given a lack of usable golf land on their two islands, they will immediately attack Manchuria again, enslave the people and build enough golf courses to accommodate every man, woman and child in Japan.

Since they seem to have the upper hand in the technology department, I envision the invention of pre-fabicated golf holes, rolled out like a carpet at each site and golf clubs and balls that only go straight at the pin.

Once they become a culture of leisure - since robots will do all the work - the Chinese will attack, take back all the land and figure out how to manufacture "knock-off" pre-fab golf holes, which they will sell to American factory firms like Rees Jones, who do the same thing over and over again anyway.

[Jerry Kluger]

Tom: China is large in population as well as land mass but  the ruling party will only allow just so much privilege to the upper class.  They will allow some golf courses to be built but it will be a very controlled development.

     My best guess is that the courses will be built in Europe. The Eastern European economies are growing and perhaps that is where we will see the growth. Meanwhile, I don't see much in the way of golf course construction in the US other than in the retirement communities for the baby boomers.  Land is simply not available for golf course construction in close proximity to where the wealth is.  Courses built further away from those centers are struggling - at least they are in the DC area.

[Gib_Papazian]

Jerry,

All my nonsense aside, to factor in the "Ruling Party" of China 50 years from now seems irrelevant. There is no way that a bunch of geriatric, totalitarian communist pukes are going to hold onto power ten years from now, let alone 50.

Hong Kong - and the taste of the elites for high class living - was the first chink (no pun intended) in the armor of their doomed social experiment.

The next step is the Internet, which cannot be controlled in a land mass that large. Those Chinese kids have already gotten a taste of Coca Cola, Haute Couture and fast cars.

The Chinese are natural capitalists, sharp as a tack and take to things with lightning speed. All that "Quotations from Chairman Mao" collectivism bullshit goes right out the window the instant a Lamborghini Countach goes streaking by with a bleach blonde Chinese girl in the passenger seat.

Golf will be the same way. A game for the affluent or not, they will take to it given the chance, but hardly at a five hour pace as their culture is one of continuous movement.

They love to gamble and there is plenty of room in that vast country for as many golf courses as they wish. Labor is cheap for the moment, and as they develop a middle class, look for public golf to spring up everywhere . . . . .

The new generation in China does not buy into that revolutionary canard any more than the Cubans want to listen to Castro's daily harangue on the radio . . . . .    

[Jim_Kennedy]

Definitely the U.S.A., mainly due to the vast number of renovations /total rebuilds foisted upon unsuspecting clubs by an ever increasing number of quasi GCArchitects.    

[Jerry Kluger]

Gib: That ruling party in China will rule as long as they want - there is no one there to challenge them.  Soviets controlled other countries which really put a whole bunch of pressure on them plus they wanted to compete with the US on the military front.  Chinese are smart - they are winning economically - they make their people work cheap and then they control the profit.  So long as the rest of the world has to buy from them because they can make it cheaper and the rest of the world is looking for a profit - no one will stop them.  But don't limit it to the Chinese - The Taiwanese are just as smart but they have the balls to set up their plants in the US as well as their own country.  

[Marty Bonnar]

Jerry, I agree.

Gib,
you're - by miles - the cleverest, wittiest poster around these here parts - maybe even the 'The Gibsco Kid' of GCA - sharpest tongue-slinger of the West.

but,
on this one, you couldn't be - well - more, wronger.

The Chinese are magnificent at stoical forbearance. The ruling 'teriat will say/do what they will. There's a MASSIVE middle ground of swelling middle-classness who so want to emulate YOU(R society) that anything is possible.

Start learning Mandarin - NOW! You still won't be able to communicate with a couple of gazillion people but "I surrender" will always be a useful phrase to know...

FBD.

[Peter Pallotta]

Tom:

If it was just about economics, I'd say India (with a middle class currently numbering 350 million, and growing) followed by Brazil (staples producer for the world, and with investment already flowing outward).  China I think will run into economic/demographic problems: so far their economy has kept growing because of the migration of the rural population to the cities, but that can't go on indefinitely.

But of course it isn't just about economics. I remember years ago, just after the Soviet Union collapsed, there was a very wise fellow who predicted that of all the countries formerly under the sphere of Soviet influence, the one that would do the best was the Czech Republic. He's been proven right, and I think he was right about the reasons as well.

He said that the Czech Republic was one of the few countries there that had a 'democratic infrastructure', i.e. most of the other countries, even before the Soviets, had been under one form of dictatorship or another for decades and centuries (i.e. many generations). They could be granted all the freedom possible, but still wouldn't know what to do with it, not for many years to come; democracy simply wasn't bred in their bones. The Czechs, on the other hand, had known and lived democracy for many years prior to the Soviet's coming, and sure enough were the first to bounce back, politically and economically. So look for the 'infrastructure' for a clue.    

Sorry, I can't take the argument any further and answer your question; I don't know enough about the 'sporting/golfing infrastructure' of some potential golfing countries.  So in the end, I'd probably guess the U.S. will still lead the world.  

But when you ask "Will the USA still be devoting more of its resources and good land to golf?", I think that's a very different question. To that question my guess would be 'no', that in 50 years the "good land" won't be going to build golf courses in the U.S.  

Which, by the way, is one of the (secondary) reasons I think that Ballyneal will keep steadily rising up the rankings list; I mean, really rising. It's another guess, of course: I have only read about and seen pictures of Ballyneal. But for what it's worth, I have a feeling a course like Ballyneal is going to be giving the top 1 and 2 courses in the U.S. a real run for their money in years to come. It'll have something to do with nature, and naturalism.

Peter  

[Mark_F]

Australia and possibly New Zealand.

The housing development and golf course is a relatively new phenomenon on these shores, but has grown alarmingly in the past few years, and with an ever growing cashed-up population, there will only be more of them.

The advent of cheaper airways like Virgin Blue means a trip to Tasmania is but the matter of a couple of hundred dollars. There is already Barnbougle and a Greg Norman development, plus, hopefully,  Musselroe and Barnbougle Two, and I think our old friends TWP are in the pot somewhere too. Given the sparse population and large amount of land, as well as the tourism posibilities, I don't see how there won't be a slew of them in the next decade plus.

Because of the mining boom, it surely can't be too long before Western Australia takes off too.

New Zealand because they have to do something to attract people down there.

[TEPaul]

"What country will have made the greatest gains in the construction of new golf courses?"

TomD:

What do you mean by that? Could it be something like the most new course openings per capita or which country in new construction in raw quantity? If it's the latter I'd think it would take a while for some other country to pass the USA.

[Tom_Doak]

Tom:

The intent of my post was to ask about quality and not just quantity, though both are important to any of us in the golf business.

I disagree with your point of view, though.  Golf course development goes with the economy.  I'd bet a lot that there will be more golf courses opened in China than in the USA in 2012 or 2013, though I wouldn't bet there will be many top-100 candidates among them, because the clients in those countries can't visualize what that would require.  (It will take a few more years for that to happen, I suspect.)

The only nominee I'd have to disagree with is Mark's suggestion of New Zealand.  The NZ economy is just too small to support any significant degree of new golf course development, and we all know that Aussies won't fly to NZ to play golf, though maybe the Asians will.  I would agree that NZ is one of the most promising countries for spectacular sites.

I'd agree with Gib that Japan will have another golf boom, but they'll just be reopening the courses they built from 1985-1995, because there's no more land (Manchuria aside).  Last year there was only one new course opened in Japan.

[Wayne_Kozun]

One place not mentioned yet is South Africa and, later, the rest of Africa.  South Africa has a real dearth of excellent quality courses, particularly when you consider the number of great golfers they have produced both now (Els, Goosen, Clark, etc.) and previously (Locke, Player).

The also have some land which should be suitable and strong economic growth.

[Peter Pallotta]

Tom, Gib

Don't want to beat this demographics thing too much (just been reading about it recently), but I think you might be wrong about Japan and the next golf boom.  

Apparently, there are few countries in the world that have more to worry about in regards to an aging population (and 'non-replacement' birth rates) than Japan. North America and western Europe have basically the same issues, but have always -- and/or have recently started -- to try to address it through immigration/increased immigration.

(Besides the more noble reasons the EU has expanded to 27 countries from 15 in so short a time, one of the more practical ones is because it needs people of work-force age to sustain and grow the economies of countries like the UK, Germany, France and Italy).

But unlike North America and western Europe, Japan has never been particularly open to immigration, and doesn't seem - at least to me -- to be moving in that direction. Its economy in the short term may pick up, but one school of thought says that in the medium-to-long term, Japan mght be in serious trouble economically. Is the golfing industry there immune to that? I'm not sure.

But I'm not an economist. I'm not even a very good golfer.

Peter      

[Gib_Papazian]

Tom,

And please correct me if I am wrong, but what is to stop China from importing the best talent as part of their golf boom?

I can see one argument - that Ted Robinson's style will have appeal during the fledgling years before the masses evolve to a more sophisticated level of appreciation.

But I can see another - because the Chinese are an extremely intellectual and cerebral race. If their introduction to the game - on a macro level - focuses on strategic elements and line-of-play geometry, as opposed to expensive eye candy, you may see some really spectacular golf courses spring up.

Never underestimate Asians; they are a quick study and if their first exposure is to you, Gil Hanse, DeVrise, David Kidd or Bill Coore, it may set the tone for the future.

The danger, of course, is the same problem we have here in America. Unsophisticated developer with pockets crammed full of bank, real estate or (over there) gambling or drug money, needs to hire an architect and goes immediately for the name brand.

I'll be shot for saying this - but if it is Fazio, then that might not be such a bad thing given his courses at least have something to them beyond pure pap . . . . .

However, it is a long flight for any *first mate* in a busy facotory firm and perhaps China may end up as the easel where the next generation of Tom Doaks or Ron Forses' get their shot.

If you think about it for a minute, the Indian Gaming industry has afforded plenty of opportunity to eager and talented upstarts. Apache Stronghold ring a bell?

Perhaps China is the next land of opportunity for Todd Eckenrode to create his Barona or Brad Benz the next Coyote Moon.

Labor is cheap . . . . . . REAL talent hard to find.

Years ago I was blessed with the opportunity to play golf with the editors of the Asian Golf Review - at Hoylake, and guests of Captain Christopher Moore, who treated me to lunch and two hours of memorabilia at what I consider the true home of English golf.

Let me just assure you both of these men were as well versed as anyone on this board on the particulars of history and design - although they acknowledged it was sometimes necessary to write to the emerging level of their audience.

They "got it." They made observations about Hoylake that shocked me - I suppose, shamefully, because it never occurred to me they were really paying attention to our lunchtime journey through history.

One of them - who had about 24 putts all day - actually knew more about John Ball than I did . . . . . .

Asians appreciate high art - not just that kind of generic ching chow crap they display at the S.F. Museum of Art because the curator thinks   it is insensitive to display something that does not resemble a parody of Chinese composition and coloring.

Golf in China can break through the veneer of conformity and homogeneous arrangements.

You ready to take the lead? If you can go all the way to Tasmania, you can go to Beijing.

[TEPaul]

"I disagree with your point of view, though.  Golf course development goes with the economy.  I'd bet a lot that there will be more golf courses opened in China than in the USA in 2012 or 2013, though I wouldn't bet there will be many top-100 candidates among them, because the clients in those countries can't visualize what that would require.  (It will take a few more years for that to happen, I suspect.)"

TomD:

I'd respond, respectfully, that I don't agree with you at all.

Here's a question that might explain why;

What or who would the Chinese be opening all those golf courses in China for?

Would it be for the Chinese people?

Would it be for the Chinese elite, even if elite capatlistically?

Would it be for international tourism into China?

In my opinion, as far as wholesale importing golf into China in the next decade, I doubt the Chinese at this point are where the Americans were in 1900.

And if you think it will be the Chinese that will promote and finance golf course projects outside China, particularly in the USA, I think you can forget about that.

In my opinion, the Chinese with the wherewithal to do things like that are completely terrified at this point of rampant zenophobia over here that way, and probably not without good reason, VERY unfortunately, in my opinion.

Frankly, if the Chinese are even remotely thinking about something like seriously increasing golf course construction in China, particularly for the Chinese, the first thing they better do is REVALUE their currency and begin to bring their population somewhere near the standard of living of the countries in this world that really utilize the game of golf.

[Gib_Papazian]

Peter,

I was thinking the same thing when writing my tongue-in-cheek post. Japan is in serious trouble - like Italy - in terms of birth rates and insular attitudes. Especially Japan.

So, as our first step towards reviving the birth rates of Japan in the best interests of their golf industry, I propose the dissemination of a chemical combination of Ecstasy and Viagra in their water supply. I'm surprised that has not become the new designer drug combo of choice.

Maybe mix it in with the tobacco since everybody in Japan smokes and never seems to get cancer or heart disease.

Another suggestion - given that mulattoes like Tiger Woods, Jason Kidd and Derek Jeter seem to be the first step in the coming "Super Race' that will enslave the lower orders like me - Japan ought to import some hot Africa chicks and tell them to get busy.

Just a suggestion.

   

[Tommy_Naccarato]

Japan is in serious trouble - like Italy

Hey! You watcha you ass!