Open Championship Winning Score?

[Shane Gurnett]

Last time at Carnoustie +6 won in a playoff. Just curious, to those who know the setup and weather conditions expected this year, what do you think the winning score will be?

Thanks, Shane.

[Michael Christensen]

7 under or lower.....at least that is what my $$$ is on!

[Phil McDade]

+1

[Brian_Ewen]

12 under

[Evan_Green]

Has anyone heard what some of these guys have shot in the practice rounds?

I've got to think given the softer conditions about -10.

[Doug Siebert]

-3

The new balls and drivers will make a lot of difference, the course is playing perhaps 400 yards shorter than it did in '99, so even if the setup and weather ends up identical to then the scores will be lower.

[Matt_Cohn]

Wow, talk about a lack of consensus!

-6

[Mark Pearce]

-10

[Andrew Summerell]

-2

[redanman]

Level, for fun's sake!

[Andrew Mitchell]

-8

[Dan Herrmann]

-11

[Paul Stephenson]

-9

So much for all the majors being over par.

[Brian_Ewen]

Surely its bad protocol to post guesses at the end of day one ?

 

[Doug Siebert]

Well, there's only 24 players under par, or 1/3 of the after cut field, so I doubt we'll see double digits below par even if conditions stay as benign as they were today the whole time.  I mean, with all due respect to Sergio, he's going to have at least one mid 70s score, he always does.  McGinley isn't going to shoot another -4, and as much as I'd love to see that 18 year old shoot another bogey free 68, I think he's likely to be closer to 86 than 68 today once the reality of where he is sets in (if it doesn't happen today, it will DEFINITELY happen on Saturday)

There's no science or evidence I can point to for this, but based on what I've observed over the years, when there are less than 10 players under par, usually the final score is higher than the lowest first day score, you need to see about two thirds of the after cut field under par before they are likely to double the first day's under par amount over four rounds.

Anyone know the latest forecast?  We gonna see any teeth or is Carnoustie going to be playing in its current pitiful soft and green form?

[Brian_Ewen]

Doug , you believe Forecasters ?  

Well , they are forecasting pretty much more of the same , although they are expecting it to be more breezier over the weekend , but still in the same North Easterly direction .

[Doug Siebert]

I suppose when you are talking about Scotland the forecast is rather pointless.  Half the places in the US claim for themselves the saying "if you don't like the weather just wait 15 minutes" but that really is true in Scotland and Ireland.

I remember when I landed in Ireland on my first trip we played this nine holer that ran around a racetrack as a late afternoon warm up on the way from the airport to the hotel.  In about 90 minutes we went from sun and dead calm, to rain showers, to 50 mph winds, to sun and dead calm, then it start raining sideways while still sunny as we walked up to the 9th green.  You try telling this to someone who has only ever travelled in the US and they think you are making it up, or that it was a once a decade freak event.

[Brian_Ewen]

Doug
I hate how I stupidly listen to weather forecasters.

Tuesday Carnoustie , I wrapped up for a cold day , and it was scorching and my face ended up scarlet due stupidly not putting any sun cream on .

Wednesday , wore shorts , slathered in sun cream , sunglasses etc. , and of course it lashed down .

BTW , they are now starting to talk about rain and wind for Saturday .

 

[Brian_Ewen]

""I'd love to see that 18 year old shoot another bogey free 68"

Doug
Young Mr McIlroy needs to shoot a 65 around here to play to his handicap