Oakmont Disconnect

[Phil Benedict]

I keep reading stuff predicting that Oakmont will play harder than Winged Foot last year, with some even suggesting 10-over as a possible winning score.  Why such dire forecasts when historically Oakmont hasn't played any tougher than the typical US Open venue, with a few strokes under par being the winning score with the course playing as a par 71 versus par 70 this year?

[JESII]

Phil I've been wondering the same thing...Winged Foot beats the hell out of those guys every single time the USGA comes through.

Maybe there is a point to be made by Oakmont if they want the mantle of biggest, meanest course on the block...

[Chris_Clouser]

Phil,

I think by coming out and saying this stuff in advance it creates a win-win situation for the USGA, the players and the club.  

With the predictions of this high a score it insulates them from later criticism.  If the winner is at that score then Oakmont basically gets to puff out their chest and say they have the toughest course in the country.  Something they have been trying to prove since Johnny Miller shot a 63.  For whatever its worth.  We all get it ok, your course is rrreeeallllyyyy hard!

If the winner shoots lower and possibly shoots even or lower then the USGA and the players get some credit.   Because the USGA will be perceived at providing a setup that allowed the players to play the game instead of the typical single file golf stigma associated with the championship.  And the players will still be able to keep their dignity and the reputation that "these guys are good."  And all the while Oakmont can always fall back and say that even without an over the top setup the course was just hard as any other course to host the US Open so just imagine what it would be if it had the same setup as at Shinnecock or Winged Foot.  

I'm secretly hoping that after this years event that all of this posturing by clubs and the USGA to defend their honor and par that things start to turn the corner and become more about the golf.  It would also be fitting in a way that it would all start the year after the course that started all of this crap in 1973 would host the championship where it would end.  

But I can only dream.

[Brad Klein]

Winged Foot doesn't have deep ditches playing as lateral water hazards along 13 holes in the main fairway landing areas. It also doesn't have quite as punitive a set of fairway bunkers tight to the fairways on every driving hole. Oakmont also has more susceptibility to wind. And Oakmont doesn't have a virtually automatic birdie par-5 out there, as did Winged Foot (no. 5 hole)

[Phil Benedict]

I wasn't so much comparing it to Winged Foot, although I can understand why someone would get that impression from the original post.  Never mind Winged Foot, it doesn't seem to me that Oakmont plays harder than any US Open venue based on past scores.  It ain't just Miller - look at Larry Nelson.

Oakmont is no doubt hard but it doesn't seem to be uniquely hard as US Open courses go.  Maybe it's just harder in the every day member set up.

[David Stamm]

I saw the Golf Central broadcast last night and they said Ogilivy shot a 86 in a practice round the other day and he lost 6-7 balls. Oh boy.  

[D_Malley]

will we see is a similar strategy that players employed at carnoustie?  

which is players hitting irons off the tee on 490 yard par 4's because the penalty for missing the fairway is so severe.  the risk of hitting driver on these holes is not worth the reward.  they would rather risk missing a green from 200-220 with a long iron, then missing the faiway from the tee.

is this exciting golf?

[Paul Stephenson]

Maybe it's just me but I often seem to see players stating how tough course x or course y is before the tournament week starts.  Then they go out and win by 10 shots less than what they predicted pre-tournament.

Is there a degree of self-preservation on the PGA Tour?

[JSlonis]

I saw the Golf Central broadcast last night and they said Ogilivy shot a 86 in a practice round the other day and he lost 6-7 balls. Oh boy.  

Boy, that sounds like a lot of fun.  They won't lose any balls during the tourney however, but I wouldn't say watching the best players in the world trying to break 80 will make for great TV viewing.

Hopefully all the horror stories are just overinflated hype from the players and the media.

[redanman]

Yet another indication that this USGA Open will soon have us longing for the Open Championship.

I fully expect to catch up on my sleep watching this Oakmont disaster-in-the-making.

Tell me how this USGA Open will be a good one again, someone, please?

[JSlonis]

Yet another indication that this USGA Open will soon have us longing for the Open Championship.

I fully expect to catch up on my sleep watching this Oakmont disaster-in-the-making.

Tell me how this USGA Open will be a good one again, someone, please?

Yeah, I can't wait for the triumphant return of Paul Lawrie...whoo-hooo!  Just kidding you, I'm sure you'll see a different Carnoustie this time around.  Like you, I'm really looking forward to the Open, it's my favorite tourney of the year.

As for this year's US Open being a good one...let's hope.  Even last year's slog at Winged Foot had a very dramatic ending by several players.  

[Phil Benedict]

Other than playing as a par 70, is the set up supposed to be harder this year than in previous Opens at Oakmont?  As much as the USGA gets trashed around here, I don't think they want 10-over to be the winning score any more than they want 10-under.

[redanman]

Yeah, I can't wait for the triumphant return of Paul Lawrie...whoo-hooo!  Just kidding you, I'm sure you'll see a different Carnoustie this time around.  Like you, I'm really looking forward to the Open, it's my favorite tourney of the year.  

Jamie

Indeed you will!  I was fortunate enough to attend a presentation by the super and the course over-seer recently and they basically said nature will take its course, no tricked up stuff. If it rains an 20 under wins, so be it!

Carnoustie was a hoot when I played it last month.  I truly had nothing but fun, what a truly great golf course and we'll likely get a fantastic Open Championship. (If we wake up in time from Oakmont.)

[Dan_Callahan]

They said the same thing at the PGA at Whistling Straits. Everyone predicted the length, wind, blind shots, millions of bunkers, etc., would eat the pros alive. Then the winning score was something like 7 or 8 under. They're all a bunch of pessimistic whiners.

[Brad Klein]

Dan, but that was a par-72 set up by the PGA. They folded like toy puppies when it came to the Thursday set up and left 300 yards out there they never used.

[Phil McDade]

will we see is a similar strategy that players employed at carnoustie?  

which is players hitting irons off the tee on 490 yard par 4's because the penalty for missing the fairway is so severe.  the risk of hitting driver on these holes is not worth the reward.  they would rather risk missing a green from 200-220 with a long iron, then missing the faiway from the tee.

is this exciting golf?

George:

Remember that Carnoustie was in '99, not quite lightyears ago in terms of technology improvements (added length due to drivers and esp. the ball), but pretty close. Carnoustie that year was set up both very long (7,400+) AND very tight. Players were forced to hit driver off many tees because 7,400 yards back then was longer than it is now in the ProV1 era. That's one reason the scores were so high -- Van de Velde, for 71 holes, put on a virtual driving and putting clinic that week (one reason he took driver on the fateful 72nd hole -- he'd been driving it exceedingly well the entire week, relative to the rest of the field).

[Dan_Callahan]

Brad,

Just did a quick search . . . they shortened the course from 7,514 yards to 7,369. Not a huge difference. On Friday, they went all the way back. A quick scans of the scores shows a definite higher scoring average but certainly not the trainwreck everyone was predicting (probably because the winds never showed up).

My point is that the pros prior to the tournament always seem to envision the absolute worst case scenario. At Carnoustie and, for a day at Bethpage, they got it. But typically they bitch and moan that the winning score will be 10 over and then someone goes out and breaks par. Perhaps they have learned that constant complaining can change the setup. I think it all comes back to this coached positive outlook about their own games. In other words, their 80 is never bacause they played like ass but instead is a result of bad hole locations, inferior equipment, nagging back injury, etc.

[Phil McDade]

Dan:

You can talk set-up all week long, and how hard the course plays is pretty weather dependant. At the '04 PGA, Whistling Straits was set up both long and fast/firm, counting on windy conditions next to the big lake. Wet weather immediately proceeding the tourney softened it up quite a bit; scores went north when the tournament moved to the weekend as the wind came up, and the course dried up. Three tied at -8 (not a really low score, given the course played with four par 5s); Singh played a final round 76 -- the highest final round score to win a major in quite some time. Only two players broke 70 on the last day; the course did have some teeth.

I'd note, too, that Royal St. George's played quite easy for the Open there in '93 (Norman winning at -13) in damp conditions, and very hard in '03 (Curtis at -1) in '03 in absolutely baked out conditions.

[JohnV]

According to Accuweather the current forecast for Oakmont is:

90 degrees tomorrow.  

A chance of Thunderstorms this Friday and high in the high 80s.  

After that, the forecast through the Wednesday after the open is highs in the high 70s to mid-80s with no rain forecast at the moment.

Should be great weather for a change.  The US Open at Oakmont has been plagued by bad weather or very hot weather in the past.

Of course, all this is subject to change as the forecasts are never totally accurate around here.  In fact, they are frequently totally inaccurate.

[Jay Flemma]

That was exactly the premise of my piece for cybergolf...Oakmont has given up lots of record lows.  If rain softens the course, it'll surrender a number.

http://www.cybergolf.com/writerscorner/index.asp?newsID=5048

[D_Malley]

Phil

i was referring more to the unusual strategy of hitting irons off of the tee on a par 4 which is 500 yards long.  i think alot of players felt that the penalty for missing a fairway from the tee was much more severe than missing the green on the second shot.  

i think we may see this strategy at Oakmont.  it is easier to make par when you miss the green with your approach than if you miss the fairway from the tee.