Bill V,
I was new at Killian and Nugent, and green as a can of peas, when Kemper was designed. I always felt Kemper was the first upscale, but that may be a midwestern perspective. There were probably others somewhere in the same boat at the same time. I recall the conversation leading to bent grass fairways, which went against the conventional wisdom of bluegrass for public, bent for private.
Someone said that you could charge an extra 20 bucks a round if a course had fairways of bent, but figured it would cost $40. When they calculated that bent fairways would only cost another $2 per round, based on 35-40K rounds, the economics looked pretty good, and the CCFAD movement was off and running.
I assert that an influential course would have to be a course that could be repeated somewhere, and then WAS repeated somewhere - otherwise, how could you say it influenced anyone? So, Kemper Lakes and those few others were the most influential in shaping the nineties.
This theory takes out Sand Hills or Pacific Dunes etc., at least architecturally, as they were built in one of a kind situations. By the same token, Kemper has never been influential for its archtitecture as for its concept, and these have been influential in site selection parameters, at least. By the same token, Bandon and WS may influence a trend back to walking, even if the seaside look can't be replicated. Could someone do a walking only CCFAD on a non seaside site, and without imitating Ireland? Time will tell if an inland Ross copy with walking only will fly.....
As for Shadow Creek, it is the kind of course concept that can be replicated, at least to the degree the owner can afford it, in many locales. And, in effect, Fazio and others have repeated the concept. There are not many Fazio courses built now without some water features and a slug of landscaping, and many others put more of those features in to play catch up. Every time Tom convinces an owner to spend millions extra, it makes it easier for other architects to convince an owner to spend hundreds of (well, at least tens of) thousands extra....
Following Ian Andrew's theory, either "The Pit" in Pinehurst, or any of the many "The Quarry" courses, are likely to be influential protoypes for future courses for land cost and environmental reasons. Once we (and environmentalists) saw it could be done, it opened up lots of formerly "off limits" sites. And there are courses like Old Marsh, with its recollection and filtering systems to keep golf course maintenacnce "inputs" on the course and off neighboring property, which is now nearly standard practice, that have been emulated repeatedly, but with little notice from golfers
To me, entire bodies of work are influential more than any particular course. Fazio probably had the most influence through his entire body of work. I don't see many replicating Pete Dye's style, but many architects have emulated Tom's style of moving more earth, but in gentler and more flowing lines, versus the framing mounds of the 80's. Of course, each architect puts his own twist on it.
Similarly, if Doak and Coore and Crenshaw have had influence, and I think they have, it is for their body of work in minimalism and restoration OTHER than their minimalism on the most spectacular sites.