ANGC Rating/Slope for '07 Masters

[Tom Yost]

The other thread about "what would you shoot at Augusta" got me to wondering... any guesses as to what the rating and slope might have been for the course as it was set up for this year's Masters tournament ??

Tom

[Punchbowl]

I know in general they have no rating and slope even for the member's tees.  Played there in February....asked if I could get that information.  Was told to just enjoy my rounds.

[Phil Benedict]

I know in general they have no rating and slope even for the member's tees.  Played there in February....asked if I could get that information.  Was told to just enjoy my rounds.

So it's impossible to post a score from ANGC?  So weird.

[A.G._Crockett]

I thought about this on Saturday, when the 50 or so guys who made the cut averaged 77+.  If you figure that they were, at that moment, maybe +7 handicaps, then the course rating would be somewhere around 84 or 85 for that day, I suppose.  The maximum slope is 155, but I guarantee you that wasn't enough on Saturday!

[Brad Tufts]

I'd think that rating had to be 76-77?  

Slope I don't think would be as comparatively high, as a higher-h'capper could get it around on the ground pretty easy without many hazard carries.

I always thought it was weird that some courses didn't have ratings.  Especially one like Augusta that doesn't have wildly changing winds/conditions, etc...  Maybe they don't want to get rerated often enough to reflect the constant changes?

[Jim Nugent]

Slope is defined as (Bogey - Course Rating) x 5.381, where bogey is the score a 20 or so handicapper would make, who hits his drives 200 yards and can reach a 370 yard hole in 2.  I believe a 20 handicapper would have trouble shooting less than 120 to 125 at Augusta under a Masters-type setup.  

CR, if I understand it right, is what a scratch player would shoot, who drives the ball around 250 yards.  My sense is that scratch golfers might shoot 85 there, if they were lucky.

If so, then 125-85 = 40.  40 x 5.381 = 215.24.  That is what ANGC's slope would be -- if my assumptions are right -- except that by the rules, slope cannot exceed 155.  CR by my guess is in the mid or upper 80's.  

JVB (among others) could give us better insights about this.  

[Jim Nugent]

Bill -- the journalist played from members tees.  Also, unless he is 20 handicapper who hits his drives 200 yards, his score is meaningless for slope.  The article makes it clear he is neither.  

[Matthew Hunt]

I did a bit of Maths, The Average tour player Hcp is 5.5. The stroke Average was 77

77+5.5=83.5

American Rating=83.5

7445/200=37.225+38.5=75.7

This proof that the American Method is better. I will work it out with my own method soon.

[Kyle Harris]

I did a bit of Maths, The Average tour player Hcp is 5.5. The stroke Average was 77

77+5.5=83.5

American Rating=83.5

7445/200=37.225+38.5=75.7

This proof that the American Method is better. I will work it out with my own method soon.

I'll assume you mean +5.5, if not, then I was an above average tour player from 1999-2006

[Jim Nugent]

Mathew, I think that might be misleading.  My guess is that touring pros are a lot more than 5.5 strokes better than scratch players, on courses like ANGC.  

[Brad Tufts]

Jim, I think the bogey score is based on certain carries and hazards, and the difference between how difficult the course would be for a scratch player vs. a bogey player.  

By the calculation method, I would guess the bogey rating would be somewhere around 105-110, adding in extra strokes for the greens.  I would think the scratch player rating might be 79-81 (a couple worse than the avg. score in the Masters, which included a couple guys who were arguably higher than the tour avg. H'cap).  This would place the slope somewhere like 135-160.  

I'm not saying your calculations are flawed, I just mean slope is not an expression of pure difficulty, it is a relative expression of difficulty between scratch and bogey.  There is a formula for this based on length and carries, etc., that wouldn't take into account the chipping areas and fast greens unless finagled at the end.

Oh, and despite the 155 max, didn't Koolau slope at 162 under the USGA system?

The whole thing seems flawed to me, and I'm sure there are many more calculations I/we don't know about.

[Jim Nugent]

Brad, I don't know much about slope or course rating.  Only what I've read here on GCA and elsewhere.  That said, I'm pretty sure the formula I gave is correct.  Here is my thinking.  

You are right that slope is supposed to show how hard the course is for high handicappers compared to scratch golfers.  That is what Bogey - Course Rating does.  Bogey, I've read, is what a golfer with a handicap between 17.5 and 22 should shoot, who drives the ball 200 yards and can hit a 370 yard green in two.  

My sense is, that kind of golfer would shoot at least 120 to 125 at ANGC from the tips, with a Masters setup.  I think that golfer would probably average 3.5 putts per green or more, playing to Masters pins.  That accounts for 63 or more strokes on the greens alone.  Could a 20 handicapper, who drives the ball 200 yards, hit any par 4's or par 5's in regulation?   How many strokes would he take to get on any of the Amen Corner greens?  Or number 16?  Or 15?  

Do you agree?  Or do you think a 20 handicapper could score better?  

The next question is, what is course rating?  What would a scratch golfer who drives the ball 250 yards score from the tips at ANGC?  Most of the top amateurs scored in the 80's last week.  Conditions were severe.  Yet I imagine they must be +3 or +4 or better.  I feel pretty sure they are far better than your typical scratch player.  This makes me think ordinary scratch players would shoot in the mid to high 80's there.  

I'm definitely guessing.  Would love to see more critiques of my guesstimate.  To me, it looks like ANGC would eat alive bogey golfers, if they had to play from the back tees, with a Masters setup.  

[Brad Tufts]

I totally see where your logic is coming from, I would just guess that using the USGA or state GA formulas, they would come up with lesser numbers than results in the Masters or our estimates would indicate.

It is alot of guesswork.  I would doubt the bogey player would avg. 3.5-4 putts per green.  I would think that would be about 2.5-3.  But again, it's all an estimate.

Whatever the math, I still think it would come out to be something between 78-80 for the scratch rating, and whatever for the bogey that gets you a 150-ish slope rating.  But having never done it, I couldn't be certain.

Speaking as a close to scratch player, I think with a bit of course knowledge and putting practice, I could shoot 80-85 there without a problem.  I would think my game is close to the 250-yard drive, low 70s scoring scratch player.  I played BB this past summer from the tips in 81 (albeit without deep, deep rough, galleries, etc.) and thought I could've easily shot 77 had I played there before, but you never know.

[peter_p]

77 + 5.5 = 82.5 under the old math.

With Oakmont and Carnoustie on the horizon the Vardon Trophy is a wide open competition. If you weren't in Augusta you moved up a lot.

[David_Tepper]

Gentlemen -

I have a question for you - how are green contours and green speeds reflected in course rating & slope?

There has been talk on various threads about how a higher-handicap golfer (15 or more) could play around the hazards at AGNC and make a lot of bogies and double-bogies.

It seems to me the problems for such a golfer really BEGIN around the greens at AGNC. Chipping/pitching onto the greens there and then trying to 2-putt would not be easy. Several chips would be bladed back and forth across a few greens and I would imagine such a golfer (me, by the way!) could easily take 45-50 or more putts.    

DT

[fred ruttenberg]

Green speed and contour combined are one of the ten factors that are used in slope rating. Distance alone is still the major factor. The 10 factors and distance are used to compute the scratch and bogey course rating. Slope is merely the relationship between the two. A higher slope does not mean the course is harder.

[Tom_Doak]

Pretty much every green at Augusta except for #12 would score a "10" on the Slope system for its combination of slope and speed at Masters time.  All those 10's would also incur high numbers in the Psychological rating for each hole.

I don't remember exactly how much those two factors would add to the slope, but it ought to be a lot ... combine that with the 7400 yard length and I think you would get a high slope rating, maybe not the max though.

I did play Augusta the day after The Masters in 1983 as one of the writers allowed to play that day.  It wasn't totally intimidating (the course was much easier then, and softened from several days of rain) but I still shot in the mid-90's, even though they hadn't mowed the greens that morning.  And I'm a pretty good putter ... a lot of 20-handicappers I've played with would never hole out on all 18 greens.

[Jim Nugent]

Green speed and contour combined are one of the ten factors that are used in slope rating. Distance alone is still the major factor. The 10 factors and distance are used to compute the scratch and bogey course rating. Slope is merely the relationship between the two. A higher slope does not mean the course is harder.

In practice doesn't a higher slope usually mean the course IS harder though?  And the combination of high CR and high slope is a deadly duo.  That means real hard for scratch players and almost impossible for high handicappers.

[Jim Nugent]

Pretty much every green at Augusta except for #12 would score a "10" on the Slope system for its combination of slope and speed at Masters time.  All those 10's would also incur high numbers in the Psychological rating for each hole.

I don't remember exactly how much those two factors would add to the slope, but it ought to be a lot ... combine that with the 7400 yard length and I think you would get a high slope rating, maybe not the max though.

I did play Augusta the day after The Masters in 1983 as one of the writers allowed to play that day.  It wasn't totally intimidating (the course was much easier then, and softened from several days of rain) but I still shot in the mid-90's, even though they hadn't mowed the greens that morning.  And I'm a pretty good putter ... a lot of 20-handicappers I've played with would never hole out on all 18 greens.

And you played from the member tees, didn't you?  Even then they must have been 700 yards or so shorter.  Now they are 1100 yards shorter.  

Why aren't you sure if ANGC's slope would max out?  155 slope means Bogey - Course Rating = 28.8.  Say course rating is 80.  Do you think a 20 handicapper who drives the ball 200 yards would shoot around 109 at ANGC from the tips, with a Masters setup?  

I've never seen the course, except for on TV, but everything I read about it makes that seem highly unlikely.  

Have any of our GCA members played ANGC from the tips, under the Masters setup (which I assume means Masters green speeds and pins)?  If so, what is your handicap and what did you shoot?  

[Matt_Cohn]

I'd say a typical PGA Tour setup would be rated 77.0 with the average score around 73.0. If this four-shot differential holds true then 77+4=81.0 for the Augusta course rating, on Saturday anyway. If the 18 handicapper shoots 125 then the slope would be 237.

The scratch player would break 80 about once in every 6 tries.
The 5 handicapper would break 90 with about the same frequency.

[Bryan Izatt]

The USGA rating system is pretty complex, so answering this question is practically impossible unless the actual system has been used.

Remember that raw length is the predominant factor in determining course rating, whether scratch or bogey.  Courses are rated under "normal" conditions for such things as green speeds and rough depths and fairway widths.  Masters type set-up really means superfast greens.  They don't narrow the fairways or let the rough grow (although those would be factors in a US Open setup).  The green speeds would add something to the rating but it's not going to be huge. Weather conditions day-to-day have no impact on course rating.  Nor does competition pressure.

I think that trying to talk about course rating and professional golfers is meaningless.  The game they play in no way matches the prototypical scratch golfer that the USGA uses.  One of the flaws of the rating system is the assumed distances that a scratch player hits drives and second shots.  They are unrealistically low for today's players and equipment.  They are meaningless for the Tour players.

For bogey players, look at how #10 would rate as an example.  The rating scheme assumes they drive it 200, or a bit more because it's significantly downhill.  They bunt their second shot 170 or more because of the slope.  Their third shot is from say 100 yards.  The green is large so it's not all that hard a target from 100 yards.  That reduces the impact of the runoff left and the bunker right.  The green slopes but doesn't undulate that much, so the green rating is is higher than normal, but not off the scale.  So, from a rating perspective it looks like a 5.something hole for the average bogey golfer.

As a comparison point for Augusta, use Oakmont, which is rated.  It's 7255 yards with a CR of 77.5, a bogey rating of 104.8 and a slope of 147.  Augusta is slightly longer, so would have a slightly higher CR.  The green speeds at both Augusta and Oakmont are probably higher in tournament condition than when Oakmont was actually rated.  But that factor adds relatively little.  Those that know the two courses better than I could comment on the relative obstacle ratings. But, I'd guess that Augusta, if rated under tournament conditions using the USGA rating system would have a CR around 78 and a slope around 145 to 150.

That means that a scratch golfer playing the course 20 times would need to shoot somewhere around 79 or 80 for 10 of those rounds.  They could shoot 100 on the other rounds without impacting their handicap.  A bogey golfer might need to shoot around 110 for half of their 20 rounds.

[Jim Nugent]

Bryan, do you think a bogey golfer (which is really about a 20 handicapper) who drives the ball 200 yards could shoot 110 half the time from the tips at ANGC, with the greens and pins set for Masters setup?  

[Bryan Izatt]

I think it's possible.   That's 38 over par for the round.  Sixteen doubles and a couple of triples.  If they have played 20 rounds on the course they should've learned something about how to putt it.   The course appears to have plenty of width and even if you get in the pines it looks like they could be played out of.

If you were going for the back left pin on 14 it'd be a lot easier trying to get it there from 80 or 90 yards on your 3rd shot than from 180 or 190 on your second shot.

On the other hand, if the bogey golfer gags at the site of water, has the hands of a blacksmith, and dies in deep traps, then they'd be the wrong horse for this course.

Are you a bogey golfer?  How do you think you'd do?

[Jim Nugent]

Sadly I haven't played golf for years.  Have no clue what I would shoot at Augusta if I could tee it up tomorrow.  Would have to be ugly though.  

Look, Doak shot in the mid-90's, from the members tees, before they had the extra rough and trees, at a course that is 1100 yards shorter than today's tips, softened from several days rain, and whose greens were not cut to Masters speed.  Hasn't he said he is around a 10 or an 8, who putts well?  

Doesn't that suggest a 20 handicapper, playing that same members course, would score around 110?  And on a course that is 1100 yards longer, with extra rough, trees, and greens cut to Masters speed, doesn't that suggest the same 20 handicapper scores 125 to 130?  

How does a 20 handicapper play a 7400+ yard course, that has lots of water in key places, is heavily lined with trees, has several narrow driving chute requirements, and whose greens are hard for even the pro's to putt?  

If you were going for the back left pin on 14 it'd be a lot easier trying to get it there from 80 or 90 yards on your 3rd shot than from 180 or 190 on your second shot.

I think a pro gets closer from 180 or 190 on 14 than a 20 handicapper does from 80.  

On the other hand, if the bogey golfer gags at the site of water, has the hands of a blacksmith, and dies in deep traps, then they'd be the wrong horse for this course.

I bet 99.9% of all 20 handicappers die in deep traps.  And it's not just a matter of gagging at the sight of water.  It's not reliably having the shots in your bag to steer clear of it.  

[Tom_Doak]

After some thought, I think I know where some of the discrepancy lies.

Remember, the slope rating is only supposed to account for a player's ADJUSTED score.  Tour pros with plus handicaps aren't allowed to report any score above bogey for handicap purposes, and that high scoring average is partly the result of a lot of "others" ... the adjusted scoring average was probably more like 75 and not 77.

Likewise, 20-handicaps are going to get around there with a couple of bogeys on their card and a few doubles on their card, and when they make a 12 on the 15th hole, that will be adjusted down.  It's entirely possible they'd shoot an adjusted 110, as long as they don't have to keep counting on the big-number holes.