Guesstimate of ANGC course rating, using TW's scores

[Jim Nugent]

Having never seen a course rating for ANGC in Masters conditions, I came up with the following guesstimate.  I used Tiger Woods' last 20 scores.  I also assumed his handicap is +8, and that slope from Masters tees under Masters conditions is 155.  

After that it's a pretty straightforward calculation:

Handicap = (Index - CR) x 113/155

TW's index for the last 20 rounds in Masters play is 68.3, if I did the arithmetic right.  So ...

-8 = (68.3 - CR) x 0.729

-10.97 = 68.3 - CR

CR = 79.27

Could do similar guesstimates with other top pro's.  Could also do this on other famous courses the pro's play.  I think that when these courses are set up for majors, slope is probably always 155.  If so, the only guess is what handicap the pro's play to.  

This gives us a numerical sense about how tough ANGC really is during the tournament.  It may well understate the real CR.  Slope probably would be higher than 155, if the rules didn't cap it there.  

[Wayne_Kozun]

Is that 68.3 for all 20 of his last 10 rounds, or the lowest 10 of the last 20?

[Jeff Doerr]

What do think think Tiger's index was (yes, I know it was only 4 rounds) compared to the field at the 2000 U.S. Open?

He was like -12 and the next closest +6 tour pro was at 2 or 3 over.

[Jim Nugent]

Lowest 10 of last 20.  If he had to count all rounds, would be way higher.  He shot several 75's, a 76, 75, etc.  

Actually, wouldn't surprise me if the actual CR is higher, maybe a lot higher.  What would a scratch golfer shoot at ANGC, from Masters tees and under Masters conditions?  Not necessarily the tournament itself, but otherwise everything the same.  

[Tom Huckaby]

Jim - that's an interesting way to arrive at course rating, and who knows, maybe it works.  You're obviously going at it from the reverse of norm, and basing it on the play of one player may or may not be a good thing, but heck I'd be surprised if you're all that off.  Very interesting take!

The cool thing is we have in our midst a verified expert on such things - John VanderBorght.  And I think he's made a very educated guess at it already, doing it the normal way (distance and obstacles).  My memory sucks but I seem to recall it was less than 79.

In any case hopefully he sees this and weighs in....

TH

[David Stamm]

This brings up a very interesting point. Yes, the course plays tougher in some cases in tournament conditions, but how do you account for absoulutely perfect greens, fairways, bunkers, tees. I know you did mention Masters conditions, Jim. But it made me think if the pros would shoot just as good scores if the course was played under "regular" conditions. I realize AGNC is almost always in great shape, so it might not matter, but when I played Torrey Pines all the time, I used to think that the pro's would not shoot the the kind of scores they usually shoot there if they had to play the course I had to play all the time.

[Jim Nugent]

David, I think pin placements alone in the majors make a huge difference.  If amateurs had to play the same pins as the pro's, their scores would balloon up.  Even scratch players, IMO.    

U.S. Open rough would take a nasty toll on am's, as would narrowing the fairways.  I don't know, but suspect that the greens in majors are usually set up hard, making it more difficult to hold them.  They also cut the greens closer,  e.g. at ANGC they stimp higher than for member play.

Torrey from the 7600 yard tips, with U.S. Open rough and playing corridors, and hard greens to boot with tight pins would be a beast few or no amateurs could tame.  

[David Stamm]

I agree w/ all that you say, but I'm talking specifically conditioning. Sure if we had to play from the tips at Torrey, or shoot at the pin locations at AGNC we would be out of our element. But I'm talking strictly conditions.

[Glenn Spencer]

I think they or should I say Tiger, will reach double digits at Torrey Pines next year. He has played that course, probably 200 times. He knows where to hit it and he shouldn't be too affected by what they do to it. This is part of the reason, I think he was able to go 12 deep at Pebble in the Open. He probably didn't even notice the rough or narrow fairways.


ANGC?

JVB,

What special considerations are taking in for the fact that this rounds that are being factored in are being played in a tournament. I imagine for the amateur tournament rounds will go up significantly, but for the pro or Tiger at least, I would imagine that his tournament scores on that Augusta course would be significantly lower than his fun rounds on that same course. He can't possibly be that good all the time. I just think his focus is heightened.