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Geoffrey Childs

Re:Wind Energy
« Reply #25 on: January 01, 2007, 11:13:34 AM »
Geoffrey,

Oil is the same price as it was in 1980 in inflation adjusted dollars.

Bob

Bob

One can also say that oil has not got any cheaper but technology for wind and solar power has improved immensely and could get much better still with incentives and research $$$.
« Last Edit: January 01, 2007, 11:13:54 AM by Geoffrey Childs »

Geoffrey Childs

Re:Wind Energy
« Reply #26 on: January 01, 2007, 11:14:39 AM »
Geoffrey, what do you think are the real costs associated with oil-based energy?  Do you have any precise (or ball-park) numbers?
 



Jim

Do you think we would give a rat’s ass about Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iran if they did not have massive oil reserves?  What was the cost of the first Gulf War?  The current one?  Let’s not just talk $$ but lives on both sides as well as infrastructure lost and environmental effects.  Why are we not doing the same defending and creating democracy in Darfur – NO OIL.  Cambodian genocide – who cares – NO OIL. The costs to keep aircraft carriers off Iran is substantial.  The costs of unjust and uncalled for wars to defend oil fields is beyond money. We seem to feel these costs are necessary because we don't have the guts to rid ourselves of this ball and chain that dictates our politics and our budgets. How about the fact that our money going to those countries and making them rich is financing the terrorists that we are fighting.  What's the cost of that?

Now the costs of USING oil in excess.  Pollution clean up must be taken into account.

Health and healthcare costs – Insurance rates go up.  Asthma, emphysema, cancer are all byproducts of using oil in excess.  How much do we pay for that?

Domestic production – Is it subsididized?   You bet it is and companies are using taxpayer land in environmentally sensitive areas in the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska. What if that $$ were used to subsidize renewable and clean energy generation?

That’s just off the top of my head.  The list for Nuclear Energy is even more frightening to contemplate.
« Last Edit: January 01, 2007, 11:20:16 AM by Geoffrey Childs »

Jonathan Cummings

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re:Wind Energy
« Reply #27 on: January 01, 2007, 12:03:50 PM »
Rich - I suggest you get your sailor friend's idea and quietly market it - you'd be rich beyond your wildest imagination.

The FAA has been pouring vast sums of money into studying ways for planes to measure winds (windshear in particular).  So far, having spent 100s of millions in research since the NTSB mandated these devices in the late 1980s, the airlines now have doppler windshear detectors located on the noses of commercial jets which are good out to…. 1-2 miles from the plane.  What's even more limiting is that these devices require receiving a doppler return on a moving mass, either a water droplet or large dust particle, or they are completely ineffective.  They work reasonable well to warn pilots around the edge of storms but are useless in non-stormy conditions.

These doppler-based systems and even advanced LIDAR (light and doppler) systems are present at all major airports.  But you know what's even more effective?  A landing plane in front of me reports to the controller he had a "shear" drop two miles from the tarmac and that controller simply warns me of what the plane on approach in front of me experienced.  If I am trying to squeak into a field in front of a brewing storm, the WSDs can give me a last minute sense of how violent the barometric pressure gradients (and resultant local winds) are at the general area of the field.  Pilots can and have aborted landings because of WSDs and, according to the NTSB, saved lives.  But the best that money can develop is basically useless if you try to ask what’s happening another mile further away.  

20 miles or so across Long Island Sound?

Short of moving the Alps to Long Island, all the measuring devices in the world along the CT coast would be insensitive to surface topographical and ground effect (within the first 100' or so) meteorically changes on LI, and would be useless for wind predictions.

JC  

astavrides

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re:Wind Energy
« Reply #28 on: January 01, 2007, 12:09:41 PM »
The statistics I've always seen are that wind energy is competitive in price now with fossil fuels.  Of course, it is a complicated issue and I don't wish to spend the time to get closer to the truth now, but for anyone who does, this looks like a good link.

http://wpweb2.tepper.cmu.edu/ceic/pdfs_other/Science_debate_on_wind_2001.pdf

And I don't know if they mention it in that thread, but one should probably also take into account the economics of dealing with greenhouse gases and health care costs of fossil fuel pollution etc. (e.g. all those cities in China where the people literally can't breathe).

My opinion is that wind energy is a good partial solution, but the only alternative energy that can truly meet our energy needs on a large scale is solar because of the amount of sunlight that falls on earth each day as opposed to the amount and location of windy places on earth.

Jonathan Cummings

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re:Wind Energy
« Reply #29 on: January 01, 2007, 12:36:01 PM »
Professor RT - My term "bathed" was a hyperbole meant for effect.  

I do not discount the social benefits and growth (I wish I had caddyed as a kid) for that small percentage of youths that grew up caddying, but come on - what the hell percentage of the world's or even the US's kids ever caddied?  I suspect you're talking a tiny percentage.

I am an ex-Eagle Scout and a lifelong outdoorsman (bicycling, skiing, backpacking, etc, etc).  I love the outdoors and a round of golf is a beautiful chance to get out and enjoy quasi-nature for a few hours.  But I try to enjoy the experience in context.  

According to the NGF there are about 3.5 million acres of land in the US devolted to 16,500 or so golf courses.  How many are in urban settings preserving the city's green spaces and championing photosynthesis?  Few.  Would there be better uses of this land?  Undoubedly.  

The majority of our courses are in areas surrounding our cities and in a complete rural setting.  I have no numbers but suspect many if not most of these locations were vibrant  ecosystems before they became a golf course.

I stand by what I said - I'm an armchair hypocrit.  I love to play golf but realize golf's rather small place in the world.

JC  

ForkaB

Re:Wind Energy
« Reply #30 on: January 01, 2007, 03:49:37 PM »
Jonathan

By combining the two independent points my friends made you are confusing yourself.  You and they seem to agree that within 1-2 miles micro weather patterns can be detected.  that's ample room to get important informqation about wind shifts for the purpose of plotting the optiomum course of a sailboat.

The completely separate point was that general secular wind patterns of LIS had been changed due to to the structures built on the southern shore.

To relate this to another thread, the former phenomenon (if true) relates to tactics and the latter (if true) to strategy......... :)

Matthew Hunt

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re:Wind Energy
« Reply #31 on: January 01, 2007, 04:55:06 PM »
There is a course in  france were the rough is cut at the end of the summer and used as Biomass. Where the cartpaths go on US coures they have solar panels and they grow crops unused areas of the course.

Jonathan Cummings

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re:Wind Energy
« Reply #32 on: January 01, 2007, 05:39:26 PM »
Jonathan

The completely separate point was that general secular wind patterns of LIS had been changed due to to the structures built on the southern shore.

Rich - my only claim is that this is a "he said" argument.  There is no physical cause and effect your friends can present that would support this claim other than their experience.  My personal inclination is to always ask for a scientifically defendable (or at least debatable!) explanation.  Without that I am unable to argue.

J  

Geoffrey Childs

Re:Wind Energy
« Reply #33 on: January 01, 2007, 06:14:16 PM »
Wind and solar are interesting, but I think the real play is in fuel cells.  I think this will all be solved in a decade or so.  The pdf below is on the internet and is public information (apparently, through the Freedom of Information Act), so I'm not violating any confidences by posting the link.

www.ostp.gov/PCAST/agenda_9_20_05_files/Sridhar_IonAmerica_PCAST_20Sep05.pdf

Investors with vision in the private sector are pumping big money into alternative energy solutions, even if the government is still in denial of the problem.  John Doerr, the well known venture capitalist, is on record as saying that alternative energy will make the internet revolution look teeny in comparison, as far as the amounts of money that will be made...



Dave

Thanks for that link.  I think the real play is to utilize all available safe and renewable energy resources asap.  I hope you are right about venture capital plays.  Usually it takes some "government tax incentives" to fuel the venture capital train but maybe the upside is so good it won't be necessary this time.  I think the oil lobby will have a lot of incentive to derail this train.  Good thing the Texas White House is becoming as outdated as a buggy whip pretty soon.

Doug Siebert

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re:Wind Energy
« Reply #34 on: January 07, 2007, 12:31:54 AM »
Wind and solar are interesting, but I think the real play is in fuel cells.  I think this will all be solved in a decade or so.  The pdf below is on the internet and is public information (apparently, through the Freedom of Information Act), so I'm not violating any confidences by posting the link.

www.ostp.gov/PCAST/agenda_9_20_05_files/Sridhar_IonAmerica_PCAST_20Sep05.pdf

Investors with vision in the private sector are pumping big money into alternative energy solutions, even if the government is still in denial of the problem.  John Doerr, the well known venture capitalist, is on record as saying that alternative energy will make the internet revolution look teeny in comparison, as far as the amounts of money that will be made...




Hydrogen and all related types of fuel cells are just another way of building a battery.  You still need some source of energy to separate the hydrogen from the water or natural gas or whatever it is bound to.  I think this particular problem will eventually be solved by capacitors that are much improved from the current state of the art (one company, EEStor, claims to have solved that today and is attracting some VC money, but I'm always skeptical of such a large efficiency jump in something that has been incremental for a while)

Hydrogen will go nowhere, the only problem it solves is reducing emissions from the tailpipe of automobiles.  We still need energy to get that hydrogen, and transport it around.  So we either still burn oil to do that, or we use solar or wind to generate some of that power.  But hydrogen has very limited energy storage, good batteries are already better.  Once capacitors are better, hydrogen is dead as a practical solution.  Leave it to a government run by oilmen to propose a "hydrogen economy" that would still have oil at its center, or lame stuff like corn or switchgrass ethanol that's got a very low yield per acre.  You find me a place in the lower 48 that can grow sugar cane, then we are talking.  Algae is even better, it would be a great way to find a use for all that swampland in Louisana and Florida instead of draining it and trying to build stuff there that the next hurricane will just flood out and cost us tax dollars to bail out the idiots who live there.

Really there are only 3 or 4 forms of energy we know of and can make use of here on earth:

nuclear

tidal - stealing gravitational potential energy from the moon and sun

geothermal - using the earth's heat, which according to some theories may actually be nuclear if the earth has a uranium core at its very center as some believe

solar - which covers PV, wind, oil, coal, biodiesel, ethanol, etc.

I wish people weren't so afraid of nuclear power as a big boogyman.  We free more uranium into the environment burning coal to generate X megawatts than we do using nuclear power to generate X megawatts.  Its just that the nuclear waste is more concentrated, but we should be looking at that as an advantage, not a disadvantage.

If we used breeder reactors to reprocess spent fuel we could use our existing nuclear waste for all our energy needs for the next several thousand years.  Yes, we end up with a small amount of horribly radioactive waste, but because it is highly radioactive it also has a very short half life so we only need to worry about what to do with it for about 100 years, instead of the 10,000+ years we are worried about with our current nuclear waste.  We can glassify it and store it on site since the amount would be so small (and therefore much easier to keep track of)
My hovercraft is full of eels.

Anthony Butler

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re:Wind Energy
« Reply #35 on: January 07, 2007, 09:29:01 AM »
Jonathan and Geoffrey

My data regarding the Long Island Sound microclimate are anecdotal, but not without substance.  They all relate back to an old GCA thread where I expressed simlar scepticism as you have on a related issue (the ability of golfers using technology to predict wind shifts at a specific place and a specific point in time--the example was at the 12th at Augusta during the final round of the Masters...) with an NLE member (John McMillan).  John said it was possible, I found this hard to believe, and used the example of highly experienced sailors on LIS only being able to sometimes being able to predict a more secular wind shift (i.e. over minutes rather than seconds).  
.....in the course of the conversation, my two data points (lifelong friends, each of whom is a world-class sailor--one aN  America's Cup veteran, the other a Pan-Am games medalist) mentioned their observation of the changes in wind patterns over the past 10 years or the patch of water that they have sailed competitively for 50+ years, and the consensus reason for them (McMansions).

Rich,

I sailed on that patch of sea for several years out of American Yacht Club in Rye, NY and Larchmont Yacht Club. I would agree with your initial analysis that it is a tricky spot to sail competitively. Any body of water surrounded by land on 3 sides for 100 miles, yet attached to the ocean is likely to exhibit some unique weather patterns. One phenomenon is the sudden calm that comes over LIS in the summer about an hour before dusk as the land masses suddenly cool down in relation to the temperature of the water which is much more stable. I recall at least half a dozen occasions where it became necessary to paddle an Etchell 22 or some larger boat back to the mooring from several miles away.

As an explanation of the recent weather in LIS, as the ocean temperature has risen approximately 1.5-2 degrees in the last 20 years the relationship between the land and sea and therefore the timing and strength of the wind patterns has changed. It is felt more specifically in LIS because of the unique geographical nature of this body of water.

You'd have to build about 500 high rise apartments between Port Washington and Oyster Bay to have much of an effect on the wind patterns... As it is, the only really intense development in that stretch of shore is in Bayville... most of the rest is State Parks and grassed areas... like The Creek Club.
Next!

Anthony Butler

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re:Wind Energy
« Reply #36 on: January 07, 2007, 09:37:35 AM »
Geoff, there is a pretty much a "perfect storm" of support for alternative energy.  Environmentalists, national defense hawks, conservatives, liberals, farmers, even the evangelical right and the auto companies.  Pretty much everybody.  The only guys against, potentially, are the oil companies.  

Watch how this plays out.  It will be very interesting to watch how the old political lines shift.  Remember, your friend W was the guy who put the word "switchgrass" into the national lexicon.  We're going to need him, and guys like him, to effect real change.  

We need people like George Bush to do less, not more... have you noticed what happens when he gets an idea? I think he should be exiled to Crawford for the next two years to work on mesquite powered car with all the 'brush he's cuttin' down there.  ;D

Here's his most recent statement on global warming:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nxpEqln5EdQ
« Last Edit: January 07, 2007, 09:38:55 AM by Anthony Butler »
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ForkaB

Re:Wind Energy
« Reply #37 on: January 07, 2007, 10:54:40 AM »
Anthony

I sailed out of Noroton YC for a few years, and my sources are two of the longest serving and most skilled sailors there.  For the time being, I'll take their word for what they told me.

Cheers

Rich

Anthony Butler

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re:Wind Energy
« Reply #38 on: January 07, 2007, 11:33:06 AM »
Anthony

I sailed out of Noroton YC for a few years, and my sources are two of the longest serving and most skilled sailors there.  For the time being, I'll take their word for what they told me.

Cheers

Rich

Noroton, CT is about 12 miles further nth. on LIS from Rye, NY.... The opposite shore of Long Island Sound (from West Harbor to Port Jefferson is also not as heavily developed as other parts of the Long Island North Shore.

Look at Google Earth and you'll see there is still a heck of lot more coast land devoted to parkland and golf courses than McMansions.

As I mentioned, I'm agreement with your friends that weather changes have occured in the area... but I think what we are dealing with here is the healthy disdain that Westchester and Fairfield Country residents have for the new money + arrivistes grabbing for the shoreline in Long Island... I will leave it up to Patrick Mucci and other Nassau/Suffolk county residents to defend their couth against any New York/Connecticut snobbery.
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ForkaB

Re:Wind Energy
« Reply #39 on: January 07, 2007, 07:31:34 PM »
Anthony

Thanks for reminding me of the location of the place I grew up.  That was impressive!  Nevertheless, I'll take the opinions of two world class sailors with 100+ combined years of relevant experience on what has happened to the wind patterns on LIS over the past 50 years instead of your musings, but maybe that's just me.  For all I know you might be a modern day Bernoulli, or even an accomplished sailor.....

Anthony Butler

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re:Wind Energy
« Reply #40 on: January 08, 2007, 05:01:09 PM »
Anthony

Thanks for reminding me of the location of the place I grew up.  That was impressive!  Nevertheless, I'll take the opinions of two world class sailors with 100+ combined years of relevant experience on what has happened to the wind patterns on LIS over the past 50 years instead of your musings, but maybe that's just me.  For all I know you might be a modern day Bernoulli, or even an accomplished sailor.....

My major sailing acoomplishment involved looking at Dennis Conner's ample butt rack sitting on the rail of his boat as we followed him around the course at the Etchell North Amercan Championships sailed out of American in Rye in 1992.

Many people think Conner is a complete jackass, but he's a hell of sailor. He shippped his boat in from San Diego, put in the water and beat the pants off everyone from the East Coast yacht clubs.

It was kind of like slotting Tiger Woods into the Winged Foot Club Championship tournament.

Next!

SPDB

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re:Wind Energy
« Reply #41 on: January 08, 2007, 05:33:51 PM »
Conner is a jackass, but my kind of jackass. The same year AYC held the Etchells North Am., we held the World's over at Larchmont (I remember because my parents hosted the Taiwan team). I seem to recall Conner getting so blasted at one of the dinners he could barely speak, but when he did open his mouth it was only to belittle everyone at his table, including the LYC commodore.

Classless, but a sailor through and through.  

(His boat didn't win btw, which may account for his frustration).
« Last Edit: January 08, 2007, 05:35:21 PM by SPDB »

ForkaB

Re:Wind Energy
« Reply #42 on: January 08, 2007, 06:46:43 PM »
If Conner had followed rule #1 of match racing (cover your opponent) the America's Cup might still be in NYC rather than in some bank vault in Zurich...... :'(

Anthony Butler

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re:Wind Energy
« Reply #43 on: January 08, 2007, 07:26:22 PM »
Conner is a jackass, but my kind of jackass. The same year AYC held the Etchells North Am., we held the World's over at Larchmont (I remember because my parents hosted the Taiwan team). I seem to recall Conner getting so blasted at one of the dinners he could barely speak, but when he did open his mouth it was only to belittle everyone at his table, including the LYC commodore.

Classless, but a sailor through and through.  

(His boat didn't win btw, which may account for his frustration).

I sailed out of Larchmont on a Shields with the Schulz brothers for a couple of years... they have a really good rum drink that is the club special...
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SPDB

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re:Wind Energy
« Reply #44 on: January 08, 2007, 11:18:46 PM »
Anthony -

That's the Monte-Sano.

Eric_Terhorst

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re:Wind Energy
« Reply #45 on: January 09, 2007, 12:05:08 AM »
As for the economics, I conducted studies of the feasability of wind and solar energy for numerous US government agencies and private companies in the mid-to late 1970's. Absent of subsidy neither was economical then, and from what I hear, nothing has changed.  Immutable lawas of physics and economics seem to be at work here......

Rich, did you use punch cards to make this post, or has your computer technology advanced since the 1970s?

I have to agree with Mr. Doak that Pacific Dunes wouldn't be the same with wind turbines on-site (though they'd look just fine off-shore, if you ask me), but it seems like this discussion could benefit from an injection of facts about the economics of wind energy...please see below if you're interested

http://www.windpower-monthly.com/downloads/05Jan_pages31-34.pdf

ForkaB

Re:Wind Energy
« Reply #46 on: January 09, 2007, 08:07:07 AM »
Thanks for the reference, Eric.  I've sent and received smoke signals From Google v0.1 and run my abacus over the figures in the article you sent, and see no reason to change my opinion.  I'd love for wind (or any other alternative energy technology) to prove to be economic, but I'm still waiting....... :)

Steve Lang

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re:Wind Energy
« Reply #47 on: January 09, 2007, 02:16:02 PM »
 8)

and aesthetic..

dogleg/OB hazards




'mill lined fairways
« Last Edit: January 09, 2007, 02:21:06 PM by Steve Lang »
Inverness (Toledo, OH) cathedral clock inscription: "God measures men by what they are. Not what they in wealth possess.  That vibrant message chimes afar.
The voice of Inverness"

Geoffrey Childs

Re:Wind Energy
« Reply #48 on: January 09, 2007, 03:24:27 PM »
Just last week they had a story on the local TV news that two propeller driven turbines were submerged in the lower Hudson River to generate power from the currents.  A single small turbine was sufficient to power a local drug store.

Currents and tides are much more predictable in time and in intensity then wind.  The propeller is programmed to rotate so incoming and outgoing current generates power.

Rich you are simply wrong if you don't see massive improvements since the 70's.  Show us some data to that effect rather then just make a blanket statement.  We need to move forward with solar, wind and tidal power generation to become independent of foreign blackmail that is affecting our economy and our decision making policies with regard to foreign affairs.

Lou_Duran

  • Karma: +0/-0
Re:Wind Energy
« Reply #49 on: January 09, 2007, 04:31:21 PM »
I love you guys!  Geoffrey, if you are a moderate as you claim, I am glad I don't have to hear the rhetoric of the Left.  I just pray that you are a bit more scientific, objective, and perhaps prudent in your use of the taxpayers' money when it comes to research in your area of expertise.  You do not have a clue about the economics of energy production in general and oil in particular, but I bet you're a big hit in the NYC cocktail circuit.  ;)

BTW, wasn't it the Kennedys who mounted a successful campaign not so long ago to prevent a sea-based wind farm miles of their Cape Cod compound?  Tom Doak is right, not in my back yard.

And right on Mr. Huntley.  My own experience with the wind energy industry is as it relates to its collusion with government for adverse taking of property.  Several years ago, I lost some land for which we had some hopes for in 10+ years to a local government which took it at the then prevailing ultra-low market price on behalf of a private consortium to site its wind turbines.  I haven't seen the results, but the pennies I was paid are long gone and I hear that the turbines scare the livestock and are an irritating eyesore.

Locating wind turbines on a golf course may have salutory effects.  In addition to possibly affecting wind currents and causing all sorts of unpredictable, quirky things to the flight of the ball, the thoughtful architect will site these towers strategically to maximize options for the golfer while at the same time solving the vexing geese and duck problem so prevelant at many courses.  It may also lower the overall cost of the round as the golfer may be able to bag a mangled creature on ocassion to bring home to his grateful wife for the dinner table.  A win-win situation if I've ever seen one, even before considering the incremental effect in the demise of the filthy Republican oil barons and a significant contribution to world peace.    

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