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ForkaB

Re:Upscale Golf Oriented Real Estate Developments
« Reply #25 on: August 29, 2006, 01:44:19 AM »
John, Lou et. al.

My source was something I Yahooed from the web. All I can remember is  that it said the top 1% had $12.5 million.  The number of households is 112 million.  The source that Jeff cited is probably more "accurate," but as others have said "wealth" is a relative term, and facades can always hid the guy drying his JC Penny boxers on the clothesline in the back yard.

Mike_Sweeney

Re:Upscale Golf Oriented Real Estate Developments
« Reply #26 on: August 29, 2006, 07:35:01 AM »
John, Lou et. al.

My source was something I Yahooed from the web. All I can remember is  that it said the top 1% had $12.5 million.  The number of households is 112 million.  The source that Jeff cited is probably more "accurate," but as others have said "wealth" is a relative term, and facades can always hid the guy drying his JC Penny boxers on the clothesline in the back yard.

Rich,

I think Yahoo is using Donald Trump's accountant, right after he finished reporting Don's net worth to Forbes.

John Keenan

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Re:Upscale Golf Oriented Real Estate Developments
« Reply #27 on: August 29, 2006, 08:20:44 AM »
On the net worth issue I believe that most planners do not include your personal residence. So those Mc Mansions should not count in ones actual net worth.




The things a man has heard and seen are threads of life, and if he pulls them carefully from the confused distaff of memory, any who will can weave them into whatever garments of belief please them best.

A.G._Crockett

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Re:Upscale Golf Oriented Real Estate Developments
« Reply #28 on: August 29, 2006, 08:22:38 AM »
I have seen similar figures to what Rich Goodale has posted.  I believe, though I wouldn't swear to it, that the number I saw was an average net worth of $10.4 million for the top 1% of the population.

Remember, of course, that if you took just Gates, Buffet, and approx. 80 homeless guys, that alone comes out to an average of around $10 million net worth.  So imagining the top 1% at a figure like $10 million isn't much of a stretch, I think.
"Golf...is usually played with the outward appearance of great dignity.  It is, nevertheless, a game of considerable passion, either of the explosive type, or that which burns inwardly and sears the soul."      Bobby Jones

ForkaB

Re:Upscale Golf Oriented Real Estate Developments
« Reply #29 on: August 29, 2006, 08:24:09 AM »
John, Lou et. al.

My source was something I Yahooed from the web. All I can remember is  that it said the top 1% had $12.5 million.  The number of households is 112 million.  The source that Jeff cited is probably more "accurate," but as others have said "wealth" is a relative term, and facades can always hid the guy drying his JC Penny boxers on the clothesline in the back yard.

Rich,

I think Yahoo is using Donald Trump's accountant, right after he finished reporting Don's net worth to Forbes.

Doubt it, Mike

It was based on the US Treasury's triennial report on national household wealth.

Just because you and I are poor, it doesn't mean that everybody is! :)

Rich

Jeff_Brauer

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Re:Upscale Golf Oriented Real Estate Developments
« Reply #30 on: August 29, 2006, 09:29:13 AM »
John,

Yes that is Southlake, home to Vaquero, mentioned by Lou.  My wife desparately wanted to move to one of the McMansions out there and we looked hard on two occaions.

On the first round, in 1999, the realtor told us we would be "idiots" to use a conventional mortgage.  He said that "everyone" used their profits in stock brokers margin accounts to pay for the houses.  But, what, I asked, would happen if the stock market fell?  Answer: That won't happen, but if it did, you would owe the outstanding amount immediately.  

Second trip was in 2004 or so, and a new realtor explained to us that home values had declined 21%, given almost 2000 foreclosed homes on the market after the stock market dipped and then stagnated starting about 2000.

In his column today, Scott Burns noted the "action gap" wherein we all think we are saving a lot for retirement, but we really aren't.  With 401K's going the way of the dodo bird, I still believe that when the American public wakes up to reality, affordable housing, golf, and everything else will be in true vogue for the upper middle class who are statistically living on the edge of solvency.

Frankly, I am very interested in the "net worth" numbers right now, having seen my wealth decrease by roughly half (and down to the next column on the chart) from the recent divorce..... :(  And that's in addition to the roughly $500K we changed our financial postion with kitchen remodels, spa additions, and her not working for three years and quitting her job three days before her pension was vested and three weeks before she would have gotten a nice buyout package.......all when the golf design business was way down right after 9/11.

Another Scott Burns axiom of wealth is to stay married.....providing its to a sane woman! ;)  Sorry, had to vent a little......back to architecture......
Jeff Brauer, ASGCA Director of Outreach

Mike_Sweeney

Re:Upscale Golf Oriented Real Estate Developments
« Reply #31 on: August 29, 2006, 10:19:57 AM »
Doubt it, Mike

It was based on the US Treasury's triennial report on national household wealth.


Let's see the report!!

A quick search showed this report as dated from 2001, however, I doubt America created almost 10 million new Super Rich from 2001 to 2006.

I own 50% of a Focus Group company (via marriage). We know demographics, and your numbers may not even work for the world population!!

"The super rich - those with over $10 million in assets - increased by 409 percent, from 66,500 to 338,400."

http://www.opednews.com/monkerud_063005_aristocracy.htm
« Last Edit: August 29, 2006, 10:21:34 AM by Mike Sweeney »

cary lichtenstein

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Re:Upscale Golf Oriented Real Estate Developments
« Reply #32 on: August 29, 2006, 10:28:48 AM »
What alot of these super rich guys do, is buy multiple homes and join multiple clubs.

I know a couple of guys who are in danger of exceeding the 14 club limit + they have full time administrative assistants that take care of their houses.

One guy told me, his adm ass't came to him with a spread sheet of clubs he was a member at, dues, # of rounds played last year, and 2 clubs he did register a single round.

Another guy here in Fl just sold his 8 million dollar home cuz he told the broker that using it 10 days a year didn't justify the expense.

These guys live in a different world.

One ass't pro told me at one of the very high end clubs, that a certain member has a bag, locker, and has NEVER played the course in 8 years.
Live Jupiter, Fl, was  4 handicap, played top 100 US, top 75 World. Great memories, no longer play, 4 back surgeries. I don't miss a lot of things about golf, life is simpler with out it. I miss my 60 degree wedge shots, don't miss nasty weather, icing, back spasms. Last course I played was Augusta

ForkaB

Re:Upscale Golf Oriented Real Estate Developments
« Reply #33 on: August 29, 2006, 10:43:18 AM »
Mike

If I have time today, I'll try to re-Yahoo the report (maybe I should have Googled, but I was feeling all weepy about Huckaby and his new sprog....).

In any case I don't really wan't to get into a pissing contest with a demographer (even if only by marriage).  I will say, from you link, that if there are 145,000 people earning over $3 million/year, the number of households with over $12.5 miooion in assets can't be far away from 1.1 million, unless those mega earners (and the ones just below them, and all the TFBs and their parents and the guys who own a few Mercedes or John Deere dealerships, or monopolize the asphalt contracting business in Southern Illinois, or even just run GCA businesses with high principles and even higher fees....) have horrible accountants and lawyers--in which case those accountants and lawyers are probably sitting on piles in excess of $12.5 million.....

15 years ago, a business associate of mine shocked me when he said that he need $5 million to be financially secure.  He lived a good, but not extravagant lifestyle then. Today, he probably has $10 million and is still working (at age 64) and still struggling and could never think of buying some $3million lot on some upscale golf course, even though he is an avid golfer.

Mike, there is megamoney out there, regardless of what the government statistics pretend to say. :)

rich

Greg Tallman

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Re:Upscale Golf Oriented Real Estate Developments
« Reply #34 on: August 29, 2006, 11:20:46 AM »

What is most difficult to find, is a Summer cool weather location with a decent sized town together with it amenities together with a great golf course.

Cary - Not sure your definition of decent size town but I can assure you that a summer in Linville, NC is special and offers much more than great golf. THe best private club in Linville and surrounding area is Grandfather G&CC with a few others also in the area (Elk River Club; Linvillle Ridge, Diamond Creek, Hound Ears...) Alos just a few minutes dow the road from Grandfather is an excellent little course at Linville Golf Club. Doubt there is a better summer location than this.

Out west perhaps Roaring Fork Club outside Aspen that has many options of membership/lodging club that might work for you.

Jeff_Brauer

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Re:Upscale Golf Oriented Real Estate Developments
« Reply #35 on: August 29, 2006, 11:36:31 AM »

Another guy here in Fl just sold his 8 million dollar home cuz he told the broker that using it 10 days a year didn't justify the expense.


Hmm.....let's see -
Monthly mortgage payment (if any) on an $8 MIL house at 20% equity and 6.75% should be about $41,600 per month or $499,200 per year.  Even if he paid cash, typical home monthly and maintenance costs equal 6% of home cost, and that alone costs $480,000 per year.  

In essence, he is paying $100,000 per night of use in that house.  Ten nights at a nearby luxury resort hotel at $300-$1000 per night equals $3000-$10,000.  

Yeah, I think the hotel is  better option.......How do guys who do so well in business make those kinds of decisions?
Jeff Brauer, ASGCA Director of Outreach

Steve_ Shaffer

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Re:Upscale Golf Oriented Real Estate Developments
« Reply #36 on: August 29, 2006, 11:42:34 AM »
Jeff

Those guys don't have a mortgage. They paid cash.

Steve
"Some of us worship in churches, some in synagogues, some on golf courses ... "  Adlai Stevenson
Hyman Roth to Michael Corleone: "We're bigger than US Steel."
Ben Hogan “The most important shot in golf is the next one”

John_Conley

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Re:Upscale Golf Oriented Real Estate Developments
« Reply #37 on: August 29, 2006, 11:47:03 AM »
One ass't pro told me at one of the very high end clubs, that a certain member has a bag, locker, and has NEVER played the course in 8 years.

Cary, there is a joke at Interlachen CC in Winter Park about **** ****.  He's a publishing guy and owns several magazines you probably read.

I don't know how much he used to use the club, but he moved from Winter Park to an Isleworth home.  He didn't use the club much.  The membership was full so the locker room was also full.  A guy joined and was given ****'s locker for the interim until a locker opened up.  Months later that guy had his own locker and saw '*** ****' in front of his locker.

"Hi.  I'm a new member and they let me use your locker for a couple weeks.  Thanks!  It's nice to meet you."

"No.  I'm not **** ****.  They told me he never comes here so they're letting me use his locker until I get my own!"

I doubt the guy even knew they were using his as the guest locker!

Another story like this involves a guy I grew up caddying for.  He was a member at Interlachen (the one in Minneapolis) and Somerset (in St. Paul).  Everyone knew he loved golf, but he seldom played.  The word at Interlachen was, "oh, he plays his golf over at Somerset."  Ask anyone at Somerset and they said, "he plays over at Interlachen."  The truth was that he didn't play at either!  Must be nice!

Jeff_Brauer

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Re:Upscale Golf Oriented Real Estate Developments
« Reply #38 on: August 29, 2006, 01:01:56 PM »
Jeff

Those guys don't have a mortgage. They paid cash.

Steve

Even so, they pay probably $50,000 per night in upkeep.  And, if they were investing that $8 MIL somewhere else, they would want a rate of return.  If the house is returning the same amount as the stock market, then they would be happy. If it wasn't you would have to count the lost opportunity to invest somewhere else in the average nightly cost.

I still think the house would be considered a toy or emotional investment.  It just doesn't make sense for anyone to spend 5-10X than they have to for anything, except in special circumstances.
Jeff Brauer, ASGCA Director of Outreach

Lou_Duran

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Re:Upscale Golf Oriented Real Estate Developments
« Reply #39 on: August 29, 2006, 01:05:40 PM »
Rich,

Treasury's report must be a statistical extrapolation based on income as I don't know how the government keeps wealth information on individual Americans.  Hopefully, brokers and financial institutions are not providing the IRS with non-taxable asset values to be captured in a mega database.  Personally, I have little faith that government projections are accurate, though perhaps the statistics are useful for directional or trend analysis.

I would be extremely surprised if 1% of the population are in a household with more than $10MM net worth with or without the value of their residential real estate.  Whatever the correct number is and however people acquire these fabulous estates, it is being done all over the place.

Jeff Brauer,

I am told that Grapevine and Southlake real estate is doing extremely well.  It is your former area and mine in north Arlington that is not.  BTW, around the same time frame you were looking in Southlake (pre-Vaquero), I was looking in your neighborhood right across the street from the private park.  I didn't pull the trigger because I didn't want to have to maintain such a large house, but the values during that time were outstanding.  It seems like at every burp in the local economy, foreclosures and For Sale signs pop all over the place in Forest Hills and Shadow Ridge.  Today's electricity prices must have average monthly bills around $1,000.  It was one my better financial moves (not doing anything).

By the way, I heard that the Fazio addition to Carlton Woods might make it the best two course club in Texas.  As I recall, the Nicklaus course was rated #2 in Texas last year by the Morning News, and I've heard from two or three sources that Fazio's might be a nose better.

Also, I understand that Cordillera west of Austin has some real promise, though the course is a little slow growing in due to the severe two-year drought.

I haven't heard a thing about the Player course north of Austin that's reportedly having a hard time getting off the ground.  Anyone have good information on what's going on?  

 

mike_beene

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Re:Upscale Golf Oriented Real Estate Developments
« Reply #40 on: August 29, 2006, 01:41:36 PM »
Lou,here's what I know about the Player deal.A couple of years ago I got a call to go to a meeting with Player(a sales pitch)for a development next to Lago Vista,which my wifes uncle developed and I have never seen,anyway I went early and walked in and Player was already there and spent the next 30 minutes in a fascinating one on one conversation about eating,the golf swing ,closed putting stance and his old book which was my first golf swing book.The course was started some homes being built and 100 people showed up for the presentation.People on the neighboring land told me construction stopped last year.I expect someone will get a nice infrastructure for a reasonable price.The problem was probably in part the timing after 9-11 and the lack of a bridge to Austin(its across the lake from Lakeway)Havent heard anything in last year.

David_Tepper

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Re:Upscale Golf Oriented Real Estate Developments
« Reply #41 on: August 29, 2006, 01:46:33 PM »
To paraphrase Warren Buffet -

"There may or may not be class warfare in America, but there is little doubt who is winning the battle."

mike_beene

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Re:Upscale Golf Oriented Real Estate Developments
« Reply #42 on: August 29, 2006, 01:55:24 PM »
The world is full of people who want to come here.No system is perfect but I wouldn't trade ours for anything.

Lou_Duran

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Re:Upscale Golf Oriented Real Estate Developments
« Reply #43 on: August 29, 2006, 02:07:32 PM »
David,

At the risk of getting into the realm of politics which I am trying to avoid like the plague, do you care to elaborate?

BTW, while I admire Buffet for his folksy ways, financial accomplishments, and charitable giving, his practices and motives deserve the same level of scrutiny applied to other powerful individuals who have had delved into the arena of public opinion.  Mr. Buffet owes a not inconsiderable portion of his wealth to his ability to snap up businesses and positions from people facing unfathonable estate taxes.  It is amazing what one can buy with cash when the other party is being pressured into liquidation by the two sure things in life: death and taxes.  Now, this all could be a mere coincidence and Mr. Buffet supports the taxation again of assets already previously taxed as income for altruistic reasons.

BTW2, I did not start this thread to take a normative position.  It does genuinely amaze me how much wealth there is, how ubiquitous it seems to be, and how it appears to keep growing.  I was/am seeking the perceptions of others based on where they live and their travels.  We can all draw our own conclusions whether this is good or bad for golf, gca, and society at large.    
« Last Edit: August 29, 2006, 02:16:14 PM by Lou_Duran »

Jeff_Brauer

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Re:Upscale Golf Oriented Real Estate Developments
« Reply #44 on: August 29, 2006, 02:42:52 PM »
Lou,

We tend to think there is wealth in Texas, and there is, but a trip to Long Island shows we have a way to catch up!  Old money simply has too big a head start for new money to catch.  However, I also agree that the wealth in this country just continues to grow.  However, no matter how much wealth the average Joe gets, he tends to spend about 110% of it.  Some of the material things look like wealth, but aren't.

I agree Arlington is going down the tubes in many ways. We have a lot of low cost apartments in North Arlington - and far more apartments than zoning allows, but the council caved every time a developer came in.  When I moved to in Forest Hills in 1990 it was the place to be, but it mirrors Texas real estate.  I bought my house for $300K not long after the '87 recession.  The original owner bought it in the boom years of 80-84 for $568K.  He had to get out. In the 16 years I owned it, it appreciated only 25%, or less than the rate of inflation.  

I use the former baseball player index to measure  neighborhood status - My next door neighbors used to include several of the Texas Rangers.  Most have moved to the above mentioned cities.  Last one in Arlington was Juan Gonzales, who lived across the street from me.  A former Ranger has that mini subdivision on Davis and Green Oaks, with its $1 Million dollar homes that overlook Ft. Worth's sewer treatment lagoons........apparently their investment sense is as good as their pitching......

Even if it's a "lite version" of upscale luxury housing, there are people who stretch to get in almost any neighborhood.  Not many figure the cost of heating and cooling, taxes at 2.78% of value, etc.  BTW, the electric bill never hit $1000, but it got within sniffing distance.

I got the Colleyville/Southlake competing 21% drop two years ago from the tax rolls and information provided by the realtor.  It may be bouncing back now.  
Jeff Brauer, ASGCA Director of Outreach

rboyce

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Re:Upscale Golf Oriented Real Estate Developments
« Reply #45 on: August 29, 2006, 04:36:56 PM »
Lou,

Buffett's position on the Estate Tax is based primarily on his philosophy of not promoting "dynastic wealth." In other words he doesn't like to see wealthly people allow their children to live off of the family riches. He much prefers a meritorious environment where everyone earns their keep. Buffett describes his plan for leaving money to his kids as "leaving enough for them to do anything, but not enough for them to do nothing." He has put his money where his mouth is and has already made plans to give away substantially all of his 40 billion + net worth.

There's a really good article about this here...

http://money.cnn.com/2006/06/25/magazines/fortune/charity1.fortune/index.htm?cnn=yes

Does the estate tax help steer some businesses into the Berkshire fold? Probably so, but i think far and away the biggest reason why people sell to Brk Hath is because they know they will be able to continue to run the business the way they want to. Whereas, when a business is sold to hedge funds, private equity shops, bigger companies, etc the selling company frequently gets chewed up one way or another.

David Lott

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Re:Upscale Golf Oriented Real Estate Developments
« Reply #46 on: August 31, 2006, 06:07:02 PM »
See the Federal Reserve's report on household net worth in 2001 (There's a subsequent one, but I can't find it right now): http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/oss/oss2/papers/concentration.2001.10.pdf

The Fed reports that total net worth of US households was about $42 Trillion in 2001. About one-third of this wealth was held by the wealthiest 1%, over half by the wealthiest 5% and about two-thirds by the wealthiest 10%. You would be surprised at the small percentage of this wealth that derives from personal residences. Most is stocks, bonds, insurance, cash and other liquid assets and investment real estate.

Also, here's a report from CNN/Money magazine in 2004. A lot more wealth has been created since them.

Most of the real wealth in this country is very quiet. The fed data shows that many of the most wealthy (top 1%) put less into housing than those further down the list. The forclosures you discuss generally derive from marketing to those who are not truly wealthy, but want to live like it.

There's plenty of money to buy all these houses. However, those with the money aren't always interested in what may seem like "upscale" to the rest of us.




NEW YORK (CNN/Money) – There are more millionaire households in 2004 than ever, and they have increased in number at a record rate year-over-year.

Those are the key findings of the latest Affluent Market Research Program, an annual survey conducted by market information company TNS, which began surveying affluent households in 1981.

TNS found that there are now a record 8.2 million U.S. households with a net worth of more than $1 million, excluding primary residences. That's a 33 percent increase over the 6.2 million households that met that criteria in 2003.

Half of those surveyed are retired.

The number of millionaire households represents about 7 percent of all U.S. households.

The reason for the record growth in millionaires next door? A steady hand in investing throughout the bear market.

"They were still investing in the market. They weren't running," said Jeanette Luhr, manager of the Affluent Market Research Program for TNS who compared this year's data with data as far back as 2000, when the stock market began its precipitous fall.

What's more, Luhr noted, while she saw some increase in bond holdings and a decline in the value of wealthier households' investments during the bear market, there were no wild shifts or swings.

When asked, 48 percent of those surveyed reported little change in their investing approach since the market's collapse, while 46 percent took a "wait-and-see" approach, making few changes to their holdings.

"The average investor may have exited the market post 9/11, but these households simply stayed the course, letting their investments regain value over time. This strategy is starting to pay off," Luhr said in a statement. "Some investment losses were offset by gains in real estate, but for the most part, ownership of stocks and bonds remained fairly stable."
David Lott

danielfaleman

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Re:Upscale Golf Oriented Real Estate Developments
« Reply #47 on: August 31, 2006, 08:29:56 PM »
Arlington, Tx is a dump - lived there in 1987-1990.

Marshall Ranch is near Lago Vista, on the north side of Lake Travis. Lago Vista was the origional "north side" golf community built in the 1960's and '70 with three good courses, and a gazillion retirement-type homes. After 40 years, they are still selling lots. Marshall Ranch golf course is nearby and it's nice, I've played it... hard to say whether the whole deal is financially viable. Most of the new golf/Mac-house developements (that are still solvent) are to the west of Austin, SOUTH of the lake - in Bee Cave, Spicewood, and further south near Driftwood. Many of the good recently built daily courses are to the east of Austin, though, and are heavily played.

Steve Lang

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Re:Upscale Golf Oriented Real Estate Developments
« Reply #48 on: August 31, 2006, 09:30:34 PM »
 8)
Hey Lou,

Most of these developments live and die on their real estate sales right?  So what's the expected lifetime till they cave from selling 1/4 acre lots for $300,000?

Not nearly the buzz about the Fazio Course At Carlton Woods as with the Signature JN one when it opened..  its removed location doesn't help..

In line with the discussion.. of non-play at these upscales.. do 250 members need 2 courses, when the main course only sees 7500 rounds per year in a year-round  golf location? Or is it the name draw or dropping values of membership that count?

Some call it the prison at Carlton Woods, i.e.,  in the Woodlands we keep them rich folk behind a high wall and fences with guards..

keep sending those cool fronts south.. it was only 92F today..
« Last Edit: August 31, 2006, 09:32:48 PM by Steve Lang »
Inverness (Toledo, OH) cathedral clock inscription: "God measures men by what they are. Not what they in wealth possess.  That vibrant message chimes afar.
The voice of Inverness"

ward peyronnin

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Re:Upscale Golf Oriented Real Estate Developments
« Reply #49 on: August 31, 2006, 10:00:08 PM »
I bit on a develpoment in Fla ( Orlando Region) Sugarloaf Mtn that will featue a C&C course. I thought they got it hiring these folks but the info they sent me didin't really expose proxmioty of housing and I have shelved.

That being said no one has followed up to hector me to see if I want to do the preoffering cherry pick exercise so they must be getting a response. Has C&C ever done a housing develpment track b4?
"Golf is happiness. It's intoxication w/o the hangover; stimulation w/o the pills. It's price is high yet its rewards are richer. Some say its a boys pastime but it builds men. It cleanses the mind/rejuvenates the body. It is these things and many more for those of us who truly love it." M.Norman