This is difficult because there are so many Great courses to choose from!
If any of them were actually Great they would actually be easy choices.
Note: I have not seen the latest greatest ... Shooting Star or Gozzer Ranch (or Alotian or Martis Camp or Dallas National). However, for the last 15 years, whatever is the newest Fazio course has continually surpassed his last great courses in the minds of panelists. To me, that's a sign that they are all excellent courses but that none of them are Great. A truly great course is not so easy to surpass your next time out.
Tom:
I would agree with you re: why Fazio has not developed a course on a great oceanfront property. It seems to me that many of his clients (not all), but many, have more than great golf on their minds. Further, he clearly is not a designer of links style golf courses and many oceanfront properties are best if designed as links golf (he simply would not be a good fit at Bandon or Barnbougle). I also agree with Andy that Fazio has received many great "mountain" sites to build golf courses - Wade Hampton, Mountaintop, Diamond Creek, Shooting Star, Gozzer Ranch, Glenwild and others. I believe that in terms of "mountain" terrain, he has received the some of the best opportunities in the country. Meanwhile, Renassaince has only worked on Rock Creek (maybe Commonground). I may have missed 1 or 2 others, but it certainly has not been a major portion of its work. So I think the issue comes down to what one calls a "great site" as I love great "mountain" courses as much as ocean courses.
However, in addition to your thoughts, I also think that Fazio suffers a little from the Dye problem. He made something out of nothing at Shadow Creek and I think that has probably labeled him to a degree.
Further, I disagree with your point that his newest course always seems to be the best. I think if you look at this string, Victoria National is a pretty consensus #1 and that was an early design. Same with Wade Hampton. In fact, my biggest problem with Fazio courses is that many of his later designs look so similar and are not as good as they should be. My guess (and it is only a guess) is that he took too many jobs at once, was stretched and did not dedicate the proper level of on site time to each project. Accordingly, during his busy years before the downturn in the economy, he just used general design principles for some of the courses. However, courses where he supposedly dedicated himself to the project have received much higher praise, like Victoria National and Alotian.
Don't know if I am right, but just my impressions.