Yes, its competitive.
Up until 2001, there were 600 or so courses built a year. By that time, literally dozens of young associates formed low cost architectural businesses out of their homes, and there was enough work for everyone. That year, Toro sent out over 300 catalogues to gca firms.
Now, there are 150 new courses being built, but still at least 297 gca firms. The average gca will build a new course every two years statistically. But there are no average gca's. The top ten names have always commanded well over 50% of the new course market. The other 287 gca's are fighting over the lower 75 courses, meaning on average, we will build a new course once every four years.
Of course, the remodel market is still there, but I disagree with those hopeful souls who think it should "pick up" to take up the slack. The same economic forces are working on existing course, squeezing the amount of money they can spend. And when they do, Toro and Rainbird (rightfully in most cases) seem to get there first to sell them only a new irrigation system. Even when a gca is needed, in many cases, the remodel is to fix infrastructure like greens resurfacing, new drainage and paths, etc.
Those numbers explain why fees are stagnant, and many more gca's are moving back to their houses to cut expenses. I am actually surprised that more of us haven't given up. I guess that's because golf course architecture experience doesn't exactly make us more marketable in the broader marketplace. (read: I am unemployable after running my small, specialized business exactly how I wanted for the last 25 years)
I don't think ASGCA has anything to do with it. Like the others, I have heard whispers that someone or another has used unfair tactics to get jobs. We have only the rare ethics case brought before our group, and in most cases, its hard to say that the winning gca was unethical - just more aggressive or better positioned.
There are only a few bad apples in our profession. Most of us genuinely like each other, and when we get together find we share more problems than we think.
As for Tom D becoming a member of ASGCA - I endorse it. Of course, if you cut me, I bleed Ross Tartan red, blue and green. I can't believe that Bill or Alice hasn't approached you. I recall you saying Jack did at Sebonic. Just how much higher a person would you have to listen too? I wouldn't worry about talking behind your back. I know some highly contentious candidates in the application process who have been quickly accepted at their first meeting. However, the jury is still out on Ian!
