[Mike Nuzzo]

Another nugget from the Whitten interview:

3rd - Bay Harbor G.C. (Links 9), Petosky, Mich. - 392 yds. par 4. Art Hills & Brian Yoder (1998). has two distinct fairways. Most alternate fairway holes are either/or propositions, so that everybody plays either one fairway or the other. But on this hole there are real advantages and disadvantages to driving onto either fairway.

Has anyone played this hole?
Is there a significant advantage to one over the other?

Cypress Points 16th is an all or nothing proposition for most - it might be less of an option now than in the past due the its very own history.  No matter how oppositional the wind, most still go for the green due to the greatness of the hole.  Only David M., Bob H. and Lynn S. lay up in severe conditions.  Does the greatness of the hole make it less great?

What are some examples of equal distribution for playing a hole with options?

i.e. a big reward for the risky option, but you'd only go for it 10% of the time - unlike Cypress in the wind where it is more like 95%.  Or a slight reward for the not so risky option that you may go for between 40-60%.

Cheers

[Bill Gayne]

Mike,

I don't know if your looking for arithmetic answer but in a simplified computation it would have to be a risk that you could have a favorable outcome 2/3rds of the time to be risk neutral.

Take risk:
Percent time favorable outcome .667 and unfavorable outcome .333.
Cost/benefit:
Favorable outcome save 1 stroke and unfavorable outcome two stroke penalty.
Expected value computation:
(1*.667)+(-2*.333)=0

It is usually more complicated because the risk can have a variety of outcomes or create further options which need to be evaluated.

[Mike Nuzzo]

Thank you Bill.

I was using the numbers to help define my thoughts not really trying to use the golden ratio towards optional fairways..  

I'm looking for subjective examples that work, which Ron said aren't too frequent.

Cheers

[ForkaB]

Mike

I thought this was dealt with on the Fibonacci thread.

1.61803, as I remember..........

Cheers

Rich

[Tom Huckaby]

Mike - are you asking for how the holes play in competition, or how they play just in normal everyday golf?

Those are two very different things.

Put me on Cypress with something really to play for - major tournament, huge bet, whatever - and the ratio goes from 95% to go at least 75% layup, in any kind of wind.

Isn't this a key point to keep in mind?

TH

[Lou_Duran]

Cannot be quantified.  If it is to be used as a guideline in design, from whose perspective is the architect choosing?

Does anyone really compute conditional probabilities in their heads while contemplating their next shot?  Is so, no wonder the game takes so long to play.

I suspect that most of us make a relatively quick and highly subjective decision based on a number of aforementioned factors, then pull the trigger.  Of course, I could be wrong regarding engineers, but how many of these folks play golf with much distinction anyways?

[Chris Burgard]

Mike,

I have only played this hole once, but there is an advantage to playing to the left fairway on this hole. You have a forced carry of probably 220 - 230 yards over the cliff, but will be left with a wedge to the green which opens up to receive a shot from this side.

If you take the cautious route to the right side, you are faced with a downhill second shot which must carry a fairly large bunker. From this angle the green is fairly shallow with more trouble behind.

Of course, I took the "can't make up my mind route" up the middle. Thankfully, I caught the downhill slope and ended up in the left fairway anyhow.  
Chris

[Bill Gayne]

Does anyone really compute conditional probabilities in their heads while contemplating their next shot?  Is so, no wonder the game takes so long to play.

I was thinking in addition to my range finder binoculars, GPS, portable weather station for lightning and wind, I would alter a Black and Scholes option pricing calculator to determine the value of different golf course shot options. My only concern is the electromagnetic field that would be created and the possible health risk to my playing partners and to the titanium contained in all my equipment.

[Jim Thompson]

Mike,

I've played the hole a ew times and must say it is one of those holes which has the illusion of option. For me it is a no decision, I aim to the left and swing as hard as possible.  IF I hit it up the left I'm solid if I leave it out right from swinging to hard its safe and I deal with the bunker.  I think for a left hander this is a very good, thought filled hole, but for the righty its a no brainer- rip it.

Cheers!

JT

[Tom_Doak]

I agree with Ron's point in general.  Too many alternate-fairway holes provide one clear favorite choice, which is usually available only to the longer hitter.

Of course the ratio will change for different types of players, but to me there should be more risk than reward.  If a risk/reward option is mathematically neutral, there is essentially no penalty in going for it and failing.  To me, the downside should usually outweigh the upside, so only a player who is really confident AND THEN EXECUTES will gain the advantage.

[Matt_Ward]

Mike:

If you get a moment you should read Ron Whitten's assessment of the split fairway at the 13th hole at Devil's Thumb in Delta, CO designed by Rick Phelps.

The hole does provide sufficient risk / reward dynamics but Ron didn't buy into the right hand fairway option. I've played the hole a few times and can see the merits in both options.

The 9th hole at Bay Harbor (Links) is a good hole but it's not as detailed or thought provoking as the one from Devil's Thumb IMHO.

Clearly, the weaker or higher handicap player is going to bitch more about such holes because often they don't have the game to handle the more demanding choices -- usually a forced carry or rigorous straightness off the tee is often involved.

Let me also mention another solid example -- the 13th at Desert Highlands / Scottsdale, AZ. Here you have a split fairway with the riskier option on the right hand fairway which is much narrower but allows for a direct approach into the green. If yu go left you get a wider fairway but then must encounter a narrower green which is fronted by a significant bunker. If you go right you must carry the ball in excess of 200 yards. The skill level requirements on the risk side are high and candidly they should be. Kudos to Nicklaus for such a fun hole that is just under 400 yards from the tips.

Ditto the qualities of Rees Jones at Huntsville's 11th hole (Wilkes-Baare, PA area). Again, you have a split fairway that can be played in a variety of ways.

The issue with split fairways is that the higher handicap person will usually bitch more about the limited options simply because they possess a limited game. I don't fault the architect for being unable to accomodate their self-imposed limitations. Often times the higher handicap types want their cake and eat it too on such holes. Frankly, I would suggest that the illusion of success is what often floats through the head of the higher handicap types and it would likely work best -- in terms of success percentage -- for them to simply play the hole in a much more conservative manner.

[Tom Huckaby]

Mike, just to clarify, for the record, I would lay up on #16 at CPC if the wind were strong enough that I knew I couldn't get a driver there.

But if my Sunday best can get there, damn right I'm going for it, even into a 5 club wind or whatever.  That'd just make doing it all the more attractive.  Better fish story and all that...it'd be a 9 club wind by the time I got back to Chicago...

100% concurrence with all of that.  I too would layup if a well-struck driver wouldn't make it.  I just thankfully haven't faced that kind of wind there yet.

 

[Tom_Doak]

Matt:

The Anatomy of a Golf Course has a diagram of the 13th at Desert Highlands and explains in detail why I think it's a bad hole.  The player who can't go for the big carry has to play around to the left, giving him TWO forced carries and an impossible angle for the approach.

[Doug Siebert]

I agree with Ron's point in general.  Too many alternate-fairway holes provide one clear favorite choice, which is usually available only to the longer hitter.

Of course the ratio will change for different types of players, but to me there should be more risk than reward.  If a risk/reward option is mathematically neutral, there is essentially no penalty in going for it and failing.  To me, the downside should usually outweigh the upside, so only a player who is really confident AND THEN EXECUTES will gain the advantage.

I fully agree.  Length its own reward, plus there are all kinds of situations with doglegs, cape holes, turbo boosts, etc. where length is an even greater advantage than normally.  Making an alternate fairway hole follow the same tired formula is a cop out, take advantage of the situation and do something different!

So a better way to do it is to either offer a tighter or longer alternative route that significantly improves your approach angle.  Then you aren't rewarding length, you are rewarding golfers who are smart enough to recognize the value of a better approach and decide whether it is worth it to them against the risk of the narrow landing area or hitting that approach with a longer club.

[Mike Nuzzo]

Thank you for the replies...

I was invisioning how the hole would play for a member.  Someone who will play in all conditions, competitive and not, opposite winds, firm - hopefully always...

I don't want the member, after getting to know the hole and their limits, playing to the same fairway.  I think a hole where the conditions dictate the play would be a success, but I'd also like there to be a choice no matter what the conditions - repeat - for the member who knows the course well.

Any examples?

[Matt_Ward]

Tom D:

I don't agree with you / re: Desert Highlands 13th hole. The thing to keep in mind is that split fairways situations are really for the person capable in handling the elevation of the challenge associated with the risk element.

Let's look at the hole shall we. Tom, you want some sort of equity for the weaker player. I don't think all situations in golf need to be fair. Where is the same consternation / concern when architects throw into the equation the forced lay-up that essentially takes the driver out of the hands of the longer players. I can name a number of other design elements that are inserted into the equation where fairness / equity is not at the top of the charts / considerations.

Let me also point out / re: Desert Highlands 13th hole that the weaker player need not challenge the bunker with their 2nd shot -- they can always lay-up and hope to play for pitch and putt for par.

One other point -- let's be clear that the weaker player does play the hole from an appropriate tee box. If such a weak player opts for the tip tees then this silly idea that the hole is unfair because of two demanding shots is really off base IMHO.

The weaker player needs to follow the maxim from Clint Eastwood -- "a man's got to know his limitations."

If you analyze the comments Ron Whitten made of the 13th hole at Devil's Thumb (Delta, CO by Rick Phelps) he really misread the nature of the hole and the unique nature of what Phelps provided there. Unfortunately, the hole did not play a certain way for Whitten and his particular handicap. That does not mean the hole as created fails to work.

Another good example is the downhill par-5 7th at Pradera by Jim Engh in Parker, CO. Here you have two fairways with the one on the right the more riskier. It is narrow and you have to hit the ball a certain amount of distance to take advantage of it. I see no issue with the fact that a clear degree of golf skill is needed in order to go for the riskier play. That's just golf.

Like I said before -- it's often the complaint of the weaker player that they cannot achieve what the risk play is when the real issue is their overall lack of golf skill. With that in mind it pays for that level of golfer to eschew the risk and go for the more prudent / conservative play.

[Pete Buczkowski]

Thank you for the replies...

I was invisioning how the hole would play for a member.  Someone who will play in all conditions, competitive and not, opposite winds, firm - hopefully always...

I don't want the member, after getting to know the hole and their limits, playing to the same fairway.  I think a hole where the conditions dictate the play would be a success, but I'd also like there to be a choice no matter what the conditions - repeat - for the member who knows the course well.

Any examples?

Hi Mike,

I immediately thought of #15 at White Manor.  From the club website...



The best decision depends on firmness, wind, and pin placement, due to interesting green contours.  To the first-time visitor it appears "obvious" that the upper right fairway is best.  However, after the first few yards of green, the slope takes balls away to the back left.  Therefore, the pitch from the right can be really difficult depending on the wind, even though the green is open.  From the lower left fairway, the green is semi-blind and you must contend with the bunkers, but its easier to hold the green.  Also, since you have a short iron the bunkers aren't that much of a problem.  This shot becomes much more difficult with the pin back or left, again depending on the wind conditions.

I think about Brauer's #13 at Quarry @ GR as well.  There are at least 4 different options I might try depending on my game, the wind, and pin position.  

PS - Let me know if you need a place to stay this Feb in Orlando.

[mike_malone]

 Pete,
    Believe it or not the bunker is not a bad place to be  off the tee. I ended up there with the "aim at it ; you can't hit there anyway " shot.

[Pete Buczkowski]

You're right Mayday...that is a fine tactic for mid-cappers such as myself.  However, I seem to think my way out of it over the ball.  

[Tom Huckaby]

How about #5 Cuscowilla?



I really think that if one plays the tee appropriate to his ability, the decision to go left or right off the tee is nearly 50/50.  There are positives and negatives of going each way - and the pin placement will effect this, but never be the sole determiner.

TH

[Jason Mandel]

Pete,
    Believe it or not the bunker is not a bad place to be  off the tee. I ended up there with the "aim at it ; you can't hit there anyway " shot.

Mike,

It depends which part of the bunker you end up in.  If you take aim at it and are trying to stay short but it just roles in, you're right its not that bad.  But if fly your ball into the face of the bunker and it rolls down, your looking at a really difficult 100 yard shot to the green.

Jason

[mike_malone]

 Jason,

  I have no problem with those 100 yard bunker shots ; I just imagine I am NEXT to the green and hit my usual bunker shot!

[Jason Mandel]

 From the lower left fairway, the green is semi-blind and you must contend with the bunkers, but its easier to hold the green.  Also, since you have a short iron the bunkers aren't that much of a problem.  This shot becomes much more difficult with the pin back or left, again depending on the wind conditions.

Pete,

You are right, partially.  If you go to the lower left hand portion of the fairway, there's nothing semi-blind about your 2nd shot, its totally blind, unless your a good 110-130 yards away.  The way I play it, and granted I'm a 14-15 handicap is this.  If the pin is up front, I will play down the left hand side simply because I find it easier to hold the green coming in from that angle.  If the pin is middle or back I will normally try to hit it up the right hand side, with the advantage being that I can see the green, and I have a decent amount of green to work with.  

I'll be honest though, that fairway on the left is so big, alot of times I will just play down the left side  and not risk getting in any trouble.  

Jason

[Pete Buczkowski]

Thanks Jason, I knew you would chime in on this one.  I assumed that if you played left you would leave at least 100 in...wouldn't a half-wedge from there be really hard?  

If I read your post correctly you might play the hole differently under the same conditions (front pin, either left or right fairway).  I think that's what Mike was getting at, and it makes #15 a very cool hole for members.

[Jason Mandel]

Pete,

What often happens on that hole is that because of the slope on the left hand side, you can't help but end up with less than a 100 yards.  Yeh, you could hit a 5 wood and really lay back, but what often happens is someone hits a 3-wood and in the left middle part of the fairway and the slope kicks it to the bottom of the hill, leaving you somewhere in the 75-95 yard range, but remember that your adding probably at least 10 yards because of the uphill nature of the shot.

What I think makes this hole so great is that is presents options for both the very good player, and the average player(member).  The good player will try and go for it, or at least try to get close if the wind is down wind.  I've seen a lot of guys hit that green when the hole is down wind. The average player always has an option, and must really dictate their path to the hole once they get up on the tee.

Jason

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