From the Wall Street Journal online Today's Market Column.
"A no from France is also expected to have an impact on the dollar, and many currency analysts expect the greenback to rally. In recent weeks, the dollar has jumped nearly 8% against the euro, partly due to anticipation of a no vote from France.
But some take the opposite view. Fil Zucchi, manager of the hedge fund Zebra Investment Advisors, says a recent move higher by precious metals stocks is bullish signal for the euro -- and an indication that a no vote is already factored into the value of the dollar against the euro.
"Typically precious-metals equities rally as the dollar weakens," he says, since investors often purchase companies that mine for precious metals as a leveraged play on a coming move in the commodity. On Friday, the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index, an index of precious-metals mining companies, soared 3.7%. Mr. Zucchi said that move was an indication that investors are preparing for a weakening dollar, as hard assets such as gold tend to move inversely to soft assets, such as the greenback -- as well as stocks."
"I suspect that there's going to be a sell-the-dollar, buy-the-euro reaction" to a no vote in France, he said.
On Wednesday, citizens of the Netherlands will vote on the EU constitution. A poll released Friday by the ANP news agency shows the Dutch are also likely to vote no."