"Tom
I agree with most of your analysis. However the essential routing of 12 and 15 are as Colt drew. It's difficult to discern the 12th fully, the length and direction of the hole is correct as Colt drew. But the green orientation may well be different; the booklet would shed light. Colt's and appears to be less certain for the 12th and 13th holes, it's more of a stick diagram than a fully fleshed hole like the others. Again the booklet would shed a lot of light."
Paul:
I know you're able to discern what's on that second routing map because of the distinctions that've been with the significance of the blue and red lines in the last few years but with all due respect to you what you just said about holes #12-#15, particularly #13 and #14 aren't even close to a semi-accurate analysis! The tee for #12 is probably 75 yards behind the way it was built, the green is straight out, not to the left and the blue penciled hole is over 400 yards rather than the low 300s as it was built. The Colt tee to #13 is probably 100 yards from where the 13 tee was built and the green is about 200 yards from where it was built. The entire Colt 14th hole is about 250 yards from where it was built and the tee on #15 is about 175 yards from where it was built. If you call that "the essential routing is as Colt drew" (on those holes), you're either nuts or know little about routing a golf course.
"In 1913, wouldn't Colt's 15th would still be a three shotter, even without the lake carry?"
Maybe it was---if you take about 175 yard off a 570 yard hole you get a hole of around 400 yards uphill so you tell me whether that would've been a par 4 or 5 in 1913.
"Look closer at the stick map (zoom in). The holes are all numbered and sequenced; a full 18. The current 8th is not shown at all. The 8th hole labelled on the stick map is a hole with a green site at the current 6th."
Since I can't see the numbers on those holes in that first routing if what you say is true about a green site at #6 being labeled #8 that could shed some important additional light on what Crump was doing or had done before Colt ever got there. One can see that Crump's original # 5 was a short par 3 going to the hillside next to the intersection going to the clubhouse. From there one can see his 6th hole going over the ridge past #9 green to a greensite to the left of present #10. From there #7 goes to a green site near John Ott's house. From there one can see a hole going to the present #6 green. Obviously that would've meant the present 7th hole would probably have been the 9th! But we do know that Tillinghast had described the 6th hole as a par 5 going over the ridge to a green site where the present 6th green is. He described that hole in American Golfer before Colt first arrived at PVGC. This tells me how much Crump was changing things before Colt arrived and to what point he may've gotten to in his mind. I'll get back to you on that 6th green site labeled as #8. That could tell a lot of what was going on with that first stick routing and by whom.