Winter, the dollar, and Ireland (OT)

[Jack_Marr]

Lots to cheer about over here because of the weak dollar. There are lots of deals to coax people onto the courses to replace the US visitors who aren't coming because of the weak dollar.

You can play Mt Juliet and get a three-course meal for 80 euro. Rathsallagh + pint of guinness + dinner is 50 euro. The European Club + Druids Glen + Faithleg for 150 euro.

Many other deals too.

[Andy Doyle]

I was over in November and played Waterville for 50 Euros and The European Club for 75.  I had an excellent time, but the day before left for Ireland, the dollar reached an alltime low against the Euro  .  If the exchange rate had been better, I might have stayed longer and played more!

Andy

[Jack_Marr]

Agreed - great value if you're holding euros, though.

[David_Tepper]

Jack-

How much would you guess of the "bargain" pricing is due to the drop off in visitng US golfers vs. the supply of new courses in Ireland that have come on stream within the past 5-10 years?

Between Carne, Doonbeg, European Club, Old Head, Carton House, Mt. Juliet, K Club, Ballyliffin, etc., it seems like more new courses have been built in Ireland over the past 5-10 years than in England, Scotland & Wales combined.

While the weak US$ may be keeping Americans away and the demand for teetimes down, I am thinking that the supply of courses in Ireland has grown so sharply that green fees would now be discounted even if the Euro was still at $1.10.

Just my opinion!

DT

[Jack_Marr]

David

That may be true, but I think the new courses are drawing more golfers to the country in general. I say that the weak dollar is the reason only because I read it somewhere. There were always some discounts during the winter, but they weren't as good value until the dollar collapsed. Might be a bit of both.

Jack

[Larry_Keltto]

Any currency experts in the audience? What do you see for the Dollar in 2005 vs. the Pound and vs. the Euro?

[Mark_Rowlinson]

And when you are in the Dublin area, get on the high-speed ferry to Holyhead and play Bull Bay http://www.bullbaygc.co.uk/

£12 ($24) per day during the week
£15 ($30) per day at the weekend
£50 ($100) for a party of four including lunch.

You can take out a membership for £100 ($200)

All this for a very challenging Herbert Fowler course in a spectacular bit of the Angelsey coast.

[David_Tepper]

Larry Kelto-

I have been in the investment business for 25 years and, if there is one thing I have learned, it is to be VERY careful of what the "experts" are predicting.

Twice a year, the Wall Street Journal asks 55 or so economists to predict where interest rates will be 6 months out. In early July, 54 of the 55 economist predicted the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds would be higher on 12/31/04 than it was on 6/30/04. Of course, the 10-year T-bond yield was LESS at year-end than at the end of June.

In fact, over the first 20 years of this poll (1982 to 2002), the consensus prediction of the panel was right on the direction of interest rates less than 1/3 of the time.  So much for what the "experts" are predicting!

For the very little that it is worth, I think the dollar will most likely decline another 10% or so in value against the Euro/Pound over the next 12-24 months before if rallies.

DT      

[Jack_Marr]

Larry

Yes, that information is worth millions, if anyone had it. Generally, the "experts" are predicting the current rate to hold at least until the end of the year - this means nothing, though.

[Bill Gayne]

I read a forecast from a so-called expert earlier in the week that expected the rate to go 1.40 in the first half of the year and then stabilize. I've also read forecasts that expect the rate to drop. You really need to be able to guess what the impact of changes in monetary and fiscal policy are going to be and how other parties are going to react to those changes.

Good luck on figuring it out and if you do and are willing to make some bets you should have enough profit to play golf in both Ireland and Bandon

[Doug Siebert]

There are so many factors that influence exchange rates that its pretty close to a guessing game.  A lot of it is political -- the US wants the dollar to fall because it'd put additional pressure on China to abandon the link of its currency to the dollar, which the US badly wants.  On the other hand, a weaker dollar makes OPEC want to quit pricing their oil exclusively in dollars, which would be a disaster for the dollar if they did so.  The EU on the other hand really doesn't like how strong the euro has become, because it is accelerating the transition of US imports from Europe to being from China.  So even if you can guess all the economic factors like interest rates, stock markets, growth rates, etc. correctly and don't experience any wildcards like Bin Laden, unless you can read the mind of Bush and his minions, the leaders of China, the OPEC members and whoever the hell is in charge of the EU, good luck on knowing what will happen in 2005 or any other year.

Personally I'd say its a good bet the dollar will decline against world currencies in the long run (but others may not agree)  Beyond that I agree with the sentiment that if you can really know, you could easily make such a fortune that you'd never have to think about exchange rates when making travel plans ever again