Pat (Jr. or Sr.)?,
As you might guess, I am a bit biased. The quick answer...both will survive in one form or another.
Hamilton Farm has something Trump will never have: A par 3 course, the Hickory, that is quite possibly the world's finest example of such. It is unique in that it has only 3 holes under 130yds and 4 over 210 yds. The rest are all well-mixed in yardage and shot-values and unexcelled for beauty and palying practice. Hamilton also shares it's grounds with the United States Equistrian Team and integrates his historic dairy and riding areas marvelously.
The Highlands Course, it's par 72, 7100 yd big track has significant elevation changes and steep-faced Hurzdan & Fry bunkers that often are borderline ridiculous for their difficulty in maintenence and shot recovery. It is walked only by its most hardy members and caddies and is also quite resistant to very low scoring (just ask the Met. Am qualifiers this year).
Trump's Bedminister course, a T. Fazio design is a bit longer, much flatter and decent enough. My opinion is that it has a few too many silly "chute" drives and a few very "contrived" holes that appear to exist in order to bring the routing back to the main facility area. I'm not saying it is, in any way, a bad or poor course, but there is little there that is truly distinctive or of great highlight and interest (thank goodness Trump didn't force another waterfall onto this one!).
That said, there is an absolutely disgusting and tacky over-proportioned sculpted fountain (with the Trump Crest atop) right behind the 10th tee and directly in front of his undersized, but nice dining veranda. Homage to the Donald is not lost on anyone on this property.
Trump has only had all 18 open for less than three months and has just received the town's permission to build another 18 (he'll need it to expand enough to market to the 450+ he'll need to make te place profitable). He's also heavily marketing the place towards local families by adding on an Olympic-sized pool, sporting clays, tennis courts, equistrian rings and another clubhouse.
He claims to be charging $200K in 2005 for a family membership (he's been charging $175K. but making private and lower deals with everyone who has bargained hard or bought his NYC condos).
Hamilton on the other hand started at $200K for an individual (and now is looking for $300K for a family) membership. They have no plans add a pool or other amenities(other than cottages for National members). They also have approx. 50 less members than Trump but certainly have an exceptional and locally-unmatched pro & teaching staff , great food (Trump has LOUSY Food so far) and world-class service from a great team of employees (something Trump also lacks so far!).
Both have strong-willed RE-background owners that have likely overestimated their ultimate markets and reveled a bit too much in their respective perceptions of what the area really concedes and demands of golf courses, the clubs and their facilities. After all, the over-the-top nature of both are diametrically opposite to the understated Plainfields CC, Morris County GC, and Somerset Hills of the surrounding areas.
Which is a better return on your investment, you ask? I'd likely answer Hamilton Farm if you stress your golf, service and peer association. It's tough to beat them on those counts. If bad hair, large crowds (don't forget all those "foul" Trump cronies, other Trump course members and boondoggling press junkets) and amenity packages are your cup of tea, then perhaps Trump's the place for you!
Why don't you come down and see for yourself!
