Can Pebble Beach survive the technology onslaught?

[Paul Richards]

Another in the long, sad line of "how technology is ruining the Pro Tour" articles:

from SI, Feb. 10th:

>The Week: Storming the Beach


Pebble will be the latest battleground in the scoring wars


By Alan Shipnuck


Unprecedented driving distances will test the defenses of Pebble Beach, which is a mere 6,816 yards.  Pray for Pebble Beach. America's greatest course -- as much a shrine as Wrigley Field or Carnegie Hall -- is in the path of a hurricane. No, we're not talking about Crosby Weather; the forecast for this week's Pebble Beach National Pro-Am is clear skies and moderate temperatures. For the last two seasons there has been a gathering storm on the PGA Tour as longer, stronger players have threatened to destroy every course in their path. Now, just a month into the new year, the apocalypse is upon us.

SI has crunched the numbers, and they are startling. In the first four events of this year, average driving distance is up an unprecedented nine yards (from 280.2 to 289.0) compared with the same opening quartet in 2002. More mind-blowing is the average drive of the four winners -- 311.2 yards, compared with 288.3 last year. The winners' scoring average is 65.65 a round, down more than a stroke from 2002. Mostly perfect weather and dry, fast tracks have been a factor, but so too have hot new drivers and the second generation of solid-core balls, which are bordering on atomic.

Clearly we have come to expect low scores at the Sony Open, the Phoenix Open and the Bob Hope Classic, where last week three 61s were shot, along with a quartet of 62s. But if the pros tear up venerable Pebble Beach and its once fearsome neighbor, Spyglass Hill, a trend will have become an epidemic.

Despite the churning Pacific that makes so many holes visually intimidating, Pebble is extremely vulnerable without the kind of stiff breeze that slowed the scoring during the final round of the Hope. (Mike Weir, a precise plodder, matched the low score of the day, a 67, to prevail at 30 under in the 90-hole event.) At 6,816 yards Pebble is one of the shortest courses in championship golf and, with its generous fairways, has always rewarded a power game. The great equalizer has been Pebble's tiny greens, which are surrounded by peril. Even this defense falls away if players are hitting wedges into every famous par-4. The two short par-5s on the front nine have always been tantalizing scoring opportunities, but if eagle putts become commonplace on the 573-yard 14th and the once formidable 543-yard 18th, then expect the course record of 62 to fall this week, as well as the tournament scoring record of 20 under. (Poppy Hills, the third host course, has five par-5s and will be an eagle bonanza.)

As pro golf storms into this new era, it has found an unlikely poster boy in Jay Haas, 49, one of the players who rang up a 61 at the Hope last week. For the first time in his career Haas reached in two the 543-yard 11th hole at La Quinta Country Club. "Years ago the mind-set was, Make the cut first and then try to make a little move," Haas says. "Now it's, Hair on fire, let's rip it up."

This week Pebble Beach will be in the eye of the storm. How the course fares will go a long way toward determining if the game has changed irrevocably or if a month of wild scoring is merely a tempest in a teapot.

 

[Jeff_Brauer]

Responding not to the distance issue, but the "hair on fire" comment.  Jim Colbert, among others, told me long ago that  in the sixties, Nicklaus and others would worry about where to place the ball, which holes to go for the pin, etc.  By 1984, when he won twice, he figured he had to shoot at every pin.  If he was on, he did well, if not, well.....

According to him, that's why the average score hasn't budged all that much - as many people are off a bit, and pile up scores as are on - probably more.  On the other hand, the winning scores seem to be going down, perhaps because of shooting at the pin, or perahps because of Tiger.

[Tom MacWood (Guest)]

There are two Pebble Beachs. The Crosby ProAm PB in February and the US Open PB in June. PB always has a chance to survive weather permitting; wind in combination with the small severely sloped greens can make up for a yardage shortcoming. But the US Open PB has a much better chance - considering the season, the rough, green speeds etc. - than the ProAm PB. However the ProAm is played over three courses, so the scoring is more complicated.

[A_Clay_Man]

Tom Macwood is correct that the course the boys are seeing this week is nothing like the usga setup.
I watched a little today and I couldn't help but notice how the greens speeds are so different. There is justification for the shaggy greens because they have to keep the pins in essentially the same spot for at least three days.

Seriously Paul, with such incredible techno advances I would think that going low would've, could've and should've happened years ago.

So why are these scores so high?

[ForkaB]

Tom MacW makes the proper point.  The ATT is goofball, not golf.  Who cares what the pros shoot or don't shoot, except, maybe on Sunday.  For those who think that PB is "defenseless" see "US Open 2000" videos, available at a BlockBuster near you.

As for the cited article which started this thread, anybody who really thinks that there are going to be legitimate eagle putts on #14, just does not know that hole and/or golf.

[Jeff Mingay]

The average driving distance on the PGA Tour has jumped 9 yards from last season? Wow! That's very startling, particularly in light of the massive increase in distance over the past 5 years and more, already.

The USGA's Iron Byron - with his 80 mph swing speed, persimmon head/steel shaft driver - has been doing a bang up job over the past 25 years to keep the all those new balls safely under the ODS, don't you think?!?! Amazing.

During the opening session of Golfweek's conference on golf course restoration, back in November, the USGA's Senior Technical Director, Dick Rugge, stated that there was a driving distance increase of 28 yards annually on the PGA Tour between 1995 and today. He then proportionately cited the following as factors contributing to that increase:

Golf Ball: 8 yards
Co-efficient of Restitution: 6 yards
Improved Fairway Maintenance: 2 yards
Increasing Swing Speed: 12 yards

What do you think?

[Paul Turner]

Jeff

That's interesting.

First thing I would ask is how do you separate "golf ball" from "coefficient of restitution".  Perhaps he's limiting the COR to the clubhead, spring effect.

I have a chart showing the increase in average driving distance on the PGA tour, and it shows 18 yards since 1995 not 28.

[Robert_Walker]

I looked at the high end of the driving distance, and from 1995 to 2002, there is a 15 yards increase in the driving distance.

The overall average is going to continue to increase because players are swinging harder and better.

The younger players, especially, are all hitting it farther, and as they replace the older players, the overall average will continue to increase.

[Paul Turner]

Yeah, one chart I'd really like to see is the average age on the PGA tour, and whether it's shifting down.

[THuckaby2]

As for the cited article which started this thread, anybody who really thinks that there are going to be legitimate eagle putts on #14, just does not know that hole and/or golf.

Rich - THANK YOU THANK YOU THANK YOU!  This means nothing to anybody but me most likely, but I once had a long argument with a friend who just refused to admit he couldn't reach #14 in two from the back tees, if he had enough tries.... This is a guy who hits the ball no farther than me and who actually has played the hole, also!  Pros don't even reach this green... maybe some can sneak it on the front right, if everything's perfect and if they even try, which they rarely do... The point was my average-hitting friend could take the best of 100 tee shots and 100 2nd shots and still not be within 75 yards.  Some people don't understand the concept of physical limitations...

Now back to the worthwhile discussion here, sorry for the tangent.

TH

[A_Clay_Man]

Tom- I have seen one pro go for it in two. You are correct that conditions must be right (downwind) which is very rare.

It was Barry Cheeseman in the At&t and he had absolutely nothing to lose since he had shot himself in the foot at Spy in the previous round. His shot was impressive, even if it did catch the front bunker. Believe me when I say he missed the roll onto the green by inches. Later that round he did reach 18 in two but completly misread the putt for eagle. He didn't show up the final day claiming injury, which was way cool by me, since his replacement was Laird Small, one of the top instructors in the world. What was also great was he had one of the local kids on his bag, Mike Wilson. Both individuals are some of the nicest people on the planet and little Mikey has serious potential.

[THuckaby2]

Adam:  Laird Small appears in a "playing Pebble" segment on the NorCal Toyota Team Match thing, which seems to be on cable tv weekly year-round... He's always impressed me on that as being a very nice guy - good to hear he lives up to his TV image!

Re reaching 14 in two, I seem to remember Couples and a few others reaching the front right in an AT&T several years ago, one in which it was dry and they got an odd down-wind for the 2nd shot... So I'm not saying it CAN'T be done, by long-hitting pros, more that they do rarely try, and in any case my average-hitting friend has as much chance of making it as he does of dunking over Yao Ming (my friend is 5-8 and doesn't exactly have the hops of Spud Webb).

Golf Channel had a highlight show of 2001 AT&T on the other night, and in the final round Tiger reached the front bunker in two... they didn't show his shot, but to get in there, he must have been trying to fly it... I'm sure he could do it if he had to, but then again, he allegedly hit the top of the seawall to the left of 17 Cypress going straight at it from the tee!

TH

[THuckaby2]

Shivas:  given that very strange wind, hell yes what you say COULD happen.  BUT... such a wind would be very atypical, and most importantly, that kind of wind would make the top left shelf be so rock like that holding it with said 250 yard 3iron would be tantamout to impossible... you'd have to hit the collar above the bunker perfectly in order to slow the ball down.

So Rich is right - no realistic eagle putts - not if they keep the pin on the top left shelf anyway (and they always do).

Re the pros reaching in general, see my above message to Adam.. hell yeah, they CAN make it but the reward isn't worth the risk, so few ever try.  I expect that to continue this week as well, even though conditions are relatively firm and fast.

My main point is about my average-hitting friend, who couldn't reach that with two cannons.

TH

[THuckaby2]

Shivas, I may enlist you the next time this comes up with my idiot friend.  

TH

[Jerry Kluger]

I was reading the AP coverage of the tournament and Kevin Sutherland who is leading and grew up in the area said he never saw the course play so hard and fast.  He said in he was reaching places he had never been before and it was throwing the other players for a loop since the conditions were so calm.  It is unfortunate that the greens aren't faster and the rough higher as that would really make the course challenging.  When they played the open the course was not hard and fast and I think that is the only way that you can protect these courses.  It will allow them to hit it farther but a ball which misses the fairway will be tough to keep on the greens and really firm greens will force the player to use his imagination to get the ball close to the pin.

[Mike Benham]

I've reached 14 in two shots ... playing EA PGA Tour 2000, although I do have to concede that it was not a legitimate eagle try ...  

[ForkaB]

Mike, et. al.

As most have figured out, "legitimate" was the operative word in my statement.  Even a geezer like me might be able to hit the front right in two downgale, but in spite of my infallible CLAW(tm) putting grip, sinking one from front right to back left is hard to imagine, even in my dreams.......

[THuckaby2]

Thus the reason that very few pros even try to reach this hole, Rich.  The odds of getting down in two from 100 yards are just about the same as such from the front right of the green, even for those enlightened pros that use the CLAW(tm).

TH

ps - my take on my average-hitting friend stands.  Even down-gale it's gonna be damn tough to get to the front right in two... remember how uphill the hole is, and how little roll one gets right in front of the green...

[A_Clay_Man]

One of the subtleties of the 14th green is that over the bunker the green slopes away from the player. So, even holding a 60 degree wedge can be tricky especially when firm.

For PAUL Richards- All they have to do to combat the techno improvements is place the cup on 14 in the middle of the slope. Which we all agreed was the only unfair thing in golf

[JohnV]

James Achenbach's column at the end of this week's Golfweek has various items of interest about equipment issues and the USGA.  Some excerpts:

Ernie Els has gained 25 yards from last year, but he has gone from a 44-inch steel-shafted driver to a 45.5-inch graphite one with a bigger head.  So, it isn't just the ball.

The Pro V1x is hot, but it is also the firmest ball in the Pro V1 series.  We'll see how the pros like it on hard, slick, fast greens like Augusta's.

Dick Rugge said, "We are saying that the current rules on golf balls are OK.  Some very important people are saying we should roll the ball back, make it shorter.  We have listened to them; we have listened to everybody.  We do not intend to change the rules as they pertain to golf balls."

But, he then said, "The USGA believes that any further significant increases in the hitting distances of balls are undesirable, and that doesn't say increases that come from the golf ball.  That says increases are increases, period."

In other words any major increase could trigger a reaction from the USGA.  Rugge said longer driving distances are due, in equal proportions, to better balls, better drivers and better human fitness.

The average driving distance on the PGA Tour has increased 20 yards in the last 10 years.  There was a 6-yard spike in 2001, the year the solid-core Titleist Pro V1 was introduced and wound balls virtually disappeared.  In 2002, the increase was little more than a foot.

"Any significant increases," Rugged warned, "and we will seek ways of protecting the game."

Also, they are switching from persimmon and 109 MPH on Iron Byron to Titanium and a higher swing speed, but they will retest all the balls and adjust the max yardage upwards to reflect that.  No current balls will become illegal because of the change.

There is a conforming club list coming soon.  Max Clubhead size will be 470 ccs, max length is still being debated.

[A_Clay_Man]

The old girl is truely holding her own with wide dry fairways and firm greens. No wind to speak of and all of her 6800 yds and I don't see anything lowlowlow.

WHere's this techno edge? Oh I know, it will be at torrey next week.

Bravo old girl! Showed'em all didn't ya?

I wonder if Rj's been lurking here?

[Mike Benham]

In the final round of the AT&T, DL III hit:

- mediocre 3-iron and a 5-iron to 10 feet on #8
- 3-wood, 9-iron past the hole on #9
- 5-iron over the green, off the camerman on 12
- and finally, driver, 4-iron from 224, 2 putt birdie on 18

I think it was the hard greens and subtle breaks that saved the old girl from showing her knickers ...

[Andrew Roberts]

I believe Pebble survived the onslaught very well.  The fairways were wide and and firm and players like Weir and Love were hitting the ball a long ways because the fairways were very fast.  Pebble will always be okay because those greens are small and diabolical, and did I mention the course is next to an ocean.
Mike, Pebble has always been very susceptible to low scores when the wind didn't blow.  That is the way the course is and should be. If there had been 15-20mph breezes today, the leaders would of had trouble to break 70.

The tee shot on 15 is playing awfully easy without those trees.  How do you think the hole would play with a couple of bunkers down the left hand side at the 280 and 300 yard marks.  The bunkers would approximatly narrow the landing area by 5 yards.  
I believe a bunker or bunkers at that yardage would make it harder for the pros to successfully fire at the right hand flag because more pros would lay up and the angle would become harder from farther right in the fairway.  The bunkers might also cause more o.b. shots as most pros would end up aiming farther right and the O.B. might come in play more.  
What do you guys think.  

[A_Clay_Man]

Andrew- That idea has it's own champion in our Dave 'shivas' Schmidt. Pot bunkers specifically, he thinks, I think. My personal feelings are that since the trees are gone and if the decision to put the emphais back onto a good tee shot the bunkers would work. But, and I think this is just as important, the slight breather one does get on that hole is perfectly placed after the demanding 14th and before the onslaught of the final three. Belive you me, I have seen more people peter out after the 14th that I actually encouraged anyone who may be in less than top shape to grab something to re-envigorate themselves after the par 5. Mostly so they will have the energy and attitude to play the finishers well.

[A_Clay_Man]

Dave- One fact that hasn't been mentioned is that there is OB on both sides. Perhaps the swale that crosses the fairway around the 100 yd mark could be or once was some form of cross carry(?) It certainly is the only abrupt movement on that fairway. Would that sufice to screw the long ball?  the strategic thought you're talkin about is similar to the thought needed on 16.

I don't disagree with you dave that the hole would be better strategically, I just don't see it happening because pace is such an issue. ANd as I've stated before, the flow interuptus is appreciated from a mental fatigue stand point.