Hole 11: Scoring Averages

[Dunlop_White]

Hole 11 had a 4.42 scoring average in 2003, planted 36 pines down the right side, and then had a 4.28 scoring average in 2004. It became easier! Why?

Perhaps, Hole 15 at Augusta should have served notice. When the pines were planted to the right of 15 fairway, the pros were forced to play this par 5 more conservatively. Not as many went for the green in two, which eliminated many of the big numbers. As a result, scoring averages dropped from 4.72 to 4.56. Conservative play historically produces lower scoring averages.  

Does this theory apply on Hole 11? In other words, is it safer to approach 11 green from the far left side of the fairway?

[Robert Mercer Deruntz]

The brilliant minds at ANGC are hopefully learning a lesson that has been well known by many for years--options give great players fits because their focus is diminished by too much thought.  Oftentimes, once the fear or shock of having to execute a really hard shot has occurred, the player digs  in mentally, focuses on the task at hand, and executes with tunnel vision focus.  Hopefully, the stats will not result in the planting or more trees and further narrowing of 11 and 15.  The trees on 15 seem to have taken the lake on 16 out play for overly safe second shots--I sure miss seeing that mistake.

[James Edwards]

Dunlop, absolutely... Far safer..

Hitting away from the hazard at #11 is going to end in better scoring.

[ChasLawler]

Didn't 11 play considerably shorter in 2004 due to the firmer conditions mother nature afforded?

A 1 year to 1 year comparison seems very unscientific - at least to me.

[A_Clay_Man]

Dunlop, I was under the impression that 11 was easier becasue of the trees, too, Everyone, that I can remember played to the right side there. Even in the old film clips, Larry Mize's angle was different than where they were hitting from this year.

I'd speculate it was the right to left cant of that rightside fairway (now trees) slope, that made the water easier to reach (can you say PULL) than playing from the left side.

Just my O, from a couch critic. Hell, I don't even know that right side is sloped.

[BCrosby]

Dunlop -

I think the '04/'03 scoring difference had more to do with course conditions. I could swear that people were hitting 2 or 3 clubs less into 11 because of the speed of the fairways, which would accound for the slightly lower scoring there.

As to your more general point - on a well designed course, tightening landing areas, etc. will force more conservative play. But, at least in theory, that shouldn't change the scoring average for the hole. It should stay about the same. What will change is the scoring spectrum, which will be much, much tighter. Conservative play will result in fewer big numbers and fewer small numbers. That is what happened to scoring at 13 (when you compare scoring before and after lengthening) and at 15 (when you compare scoring before and after the trees).


Bob

[Patrick_Mucci]

Dave Schmidt,

Isn't this proof positive that Tour players play like dopes and are poor strategists.  Give them the golfing equivalent of a loaded pistol (a long iron, downhill, in swirling winds, to a narrow green, with water in front, and a gigantic slope and false front that dribbles weakly hit balls back into the water --i.e., #15) and they are more than willing to play Russian Roulette.  

Paging Pat Mucci, paging Mr. Mucci.  How does one explain the fact that when #11 and #15 present serious options the scores are high, but when the options are taken away on the same holes (and in the eyes of most people, made harder holes), the scores drop, particularly in light of the fact that the course supposedly played harder this year due to the firm and fast conditions?

Your quest to inflate the value of your game over that of the PGA Tour Pro based on your self acclaimed, superior intellect never ceases to amaze me.

You want us to take a quantum leap and draw absolute conclusions based SOLELY on the scoring averages over two years.

HMMMMM.

Aren't you forgeting a few things, like the hole locations this year

The lack of ANY wind this year ??

Dry conditions this year versus wet conditions last year

I know how desperate you are to make the argument, as absurd as it is, but don't you think that you should factor in all of the appropriate component pieces before trying to force your desired conclusion ?  

Honesly Dave, You just don't get it.
These guys are good, and they know the percentage play.

By the way, what's keeping you off the Tour ?

Is it all those 84's you've been shooting ?

[Bob_Huntley]

Going for the green on the par fives at Augusta. Is it always necessary?

In the third round in 1986, Nick Price bogeyed the first hole and had ten birdies thereafter, shooting sixty-three whilst not hitting a par five in two shots.

[Patrick_Mucci]

Dave,

All I'm saying is that they play like rockheads when faced with long, high risk shots.

Long, high risk shots, under intense competition aren't easy.  How do you draw the conclusion that they play like rockheads

We see it time and time again at ANGC.

I missed it, where did they do it, time and time again ?

They're good, but they ain't THAAAAT good, or else we wouldn't have this famed littany of Curtis Stranges and Seve Ballesteros's and Greg Normans and even Dan Forsmans (and a bunch of old-timers that I can't remember)who blew their chances of winning the Masters by dunking long irons into Rae's Creek and the pond at #15.  If they were THAAAT good, nobody would ever dunk the ball.  

They are that good, they're just not perfect,
which is what you want them to be.
Should they all shoot - 18 every round ?

And how can it be a percentage play if, seemingly every year, the one guy who plays #13 and 15 3 under always seems to win and everybody else loses?

What percentage play are you referencing ?
I'm also not sure that the statistics bear out your above statement.  But, amongst the leaders, if someone plays those holes in three under par, it's doubtful that they'll lose strokes to the field.  That's just common sense.  Just like playing holes # 9, 10, and 11 in even par rarely leads to losing strokes to the field.

Where's the percentage if 5 contenders screw up and lose and 1 guys succeeds and he wins?

Your premise is based on a pre-conceived conclusion, which isn't valid.

That sounds like 1 in 6 (or whatever it is in any given year) to me.  Hardly playing the percentages....the percentages say most guys screw up.  Yet everybody thinks it ain't gonna be them.  And, inevitably, most of them are wrong....

Again, your premise is based on a pre-conceived conclusion which is inaccurate.

And I'm not taking any quantum leaps in logic.  All we have is two years since the changes.  Use of a limited pool of information ain't perfect, but when it's all you got, what else can you do?

No, that's not true, you have the availability of other factors, but chose to ignore them because they hamper your theory, hence it was easier for you to just rely on the numbers and not other factors which influence play, and ultimately scoring.

Can you explain to me how the hole locations on #11 and #15 this year were different than last year?  

The hole location on # 11 was benign sunday.
Just look at Larry Mize's playoff chip-in, where the hole was on that final day, compared with where the hole was last sunday, and you too can answer your own question, and relate it to scoring difficulty and scoring differences.

I thought firm and fast makes courses play tougher for the best players and keeps them from throwing the darts they're used to throwing.

Soft conditions make for NO ROLL, for longer irons into difficult tiers and hole locations.  It's easier to keep the greens firm, vis a vis tarps and special drainage, then it is to keep the fairway firm.

Fast and firm lets these guys hit 8-irons where they might be hitting 4-irons, and that makes a huge diffference in scoring.

If not, we'd better close down this whole board for a serious remodeling because that's basically the song this choir sings.....

I wonder, how many of those that are singing, have ever played the golf course, and  I wonder how many of the choir can actually hit the intended notes

Talking golf has always been an easier game then playing golf