Patrick:
I did get home in time to see several of those shots. In fact I got a particular chuckle over Tiger missing the green from exactly 193.
I just don't know what your point is. When did I ever say, or even come close to suggesting, that this is a pushover golf hole? Far from it - I consider it to be one of the great strategic holes on the planet (for the pros and regular players anyway - most of the strategy goes out the windown for one-timers, as I've tried to describe). In any case I also have a very good sense of its difficulty, regardless of what the pros do there each April - and even they have their failures along with their successes!
So by pointing out the difficulty you are just preaching to the choir, my friend! I don't doubt this one little bit.
But saying it's difficult and saying I have no chance only has a tiny effect on the go/no-go decision... it does move it up to 190, for all the reasons we've discussed ... but like a great man said about a course on the opposite coast, I didn't fly 3000 miles to lay up.
I will have realistic expectations, for sure. But that doesn't mean I'm not gonna try.
Get it?
BTW, I said myself it was quite doubtful I could get to 190. I believe the distance alone precludes that - along with the fact the slinging hook that's required is also outside my expertise and normal comfort zone for drives. I said above it's damn near certain to be a three-shot hole for me. So no need to rub in what I already know! This whole conversation is predicated on the miraculous drive that gets me to 190. Particularly if I play at the old app. 470 tee, I believe that is POSSIBLE. Unlikely, sure. But certainly POSSIBLE. So we start from that point, and here we are.
One more thing - I'm only a 4.6 now, due to some shitty play in the last few months. I can be better. As I say I have ranged from 1-7 for the last 25 years. Still want to tell me absolutely what I can and can't do?
Whoa... that was a weird feeling defending my game rather than tearing it down. Talk about outside one's comfort zone.
John K: the issue here isn't the possibilities of any of us making it, as much as Patrick wants to preach to the choir and change it to that! I think anyone with any realistic sense of his limitations knows how hard each hole would be. If the pros fail on these - and they do all the time - one would have to be arrogant indeed to think he could do better. So I absolutely concur with your assessments, and Patrick's.
But that's NOT the issue! The issue is if you are PLAYING rather than just watching, what do you do? So John, care to answer that? What would you do from 190 on 13? From 200 on 15? That's got to be more like a 1 in 5 shot - so from there, would you fly all the way home patting yourself on the back for the layup? If so, you have a very strong sense of purpose as well and I admire you also. As Brian said, I wouldn't have the guts to lay up.
Now make it 20 yards longer on easy and I do have sanity and just realize my limitations. But put it in the "reasonably possible" zone, and don't you give it a try?
Anyway, have fun and do report back with on the scene impressions!