Jamie:
Hard to say how these changes will affect the Black.
The present desire by the sponsoring organizations (i.e. ANGC, USGA, R&A) is add length -- plenty of it. It's painfully apparent that they view shortness as being akin to obsolescence. I don't.
The Black clearly needs to play ultra "firm and fast" to really have any bite. As I said earlier it will be interesting to see how the course is set-up for the MGA Open which is being contested this week. For example, I don't know if the MGA will play the 7th as a long par-4 as it will for the Open.
I would have liked to see more imagination in preparing the Black. For example, instead of pushing the 2nd tee back why not angle the tee more to the left and present a more dramatic dog-leg left. Since a major storm several years ago the left side is much thinner and players have taken shots that were previously blocked and fired away with impunity.
Another example is the 1st. Will the USGA keep the tee on the extreme right of the box to prevent players from having a favorable angle to clear the newly planted ash trees at the corner of the dog-leg?
You know as well as I do that if the tees are middle to left on the box and the prevailing southwest wind is blowing downwind the long players will have no problem clearing the corner and having nothing more than flip wedges into the hole.
Tour players will not hit drivers if they can still accomplish their task in playing a hole. The goal for the Bethpage Open is to force players to think extra hard about abandoning the need to hit full out. That's why I oppose the rough cut in the 6th fairway at the bottom of the hill. The majority of players will opt to stay on the top side, but why not give the player seeking to jump start a round the opportunity to bust one and fly the hill to set up a short wedge???
I sadly believe Bethpage will be deemed by many people as just a long Tillie design devoid of character. Having one or two short par-4's under 400 yards could have been achieved. Part of that problem rests with the USGA and the State of New Yoak in deciding to leave the greens (flat as pancakes on 2/3's of the holes) as they are.
The claim that the greens can be induced to a speed of 13 on the Stimp is a nice talking point, but once players of world class skill get dialed in on flat greens you will see birdies.
Holes like #2 and #9 did not need to be lengthened but changed with a contoured greens that could catch many players napping and hit them with a very real three-putt situation.
Again, watch the scores with this week's MGA Open. Tee to green the Black does scare the rank amateur and journeyman pro, but the front nine is clearly vulnerable in my mind to being torched. When you have mild greens the only way to keep players honest is to have a site that features a good bit of wind. The BO has that possibility but the Black is not like it's brethern on the Island SH.
The back nine has muscle and will not yield low scores gently. If the Black had WF / West greens then you would see plenty of professional on their knees screaming for mercy.
We shall see ...